광역지자체 건물부문 신재생 에너지 보급 계획의 전기화 기여도 평가: 2035 NDC 목표 달성 가능성을 중심으로
Evaluating the Contribution of Metropolitan Governments’ Renewable Energy Deployment Plans to Building Electrification: Implications for Achieving the 2035 NDC Target
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In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent to which building electrification derived from the renewable energy deployment plans of 13 metropolitan governments can contribute to achieving South Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target for the building sector. To that end, we analyzed the renewable energy deployment plans presented in local governments’ carbon neutrality and green growth master plans to estimate electricity generation through 2033. We also calculated the electricity demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential associated with replacing fossil fuel-based heating and hot water systems in residential and commercial buildings with electric heat pumps. The results show that renewable energy generation in 2033 (236,330 GWh) is expected to exceed electrification demand by a factor of 3.6, which corresponds to a national average coverage rate of 368.7%. However, pronounced regional disparities were observed, with coverage ranging from 1,830.7% in Chungnam to 18.6% in Jeju. The net GHG reduction of 11.2 MtCO₂eq represents approximately 38% – 40% of the 2035 NDC target for the building sector. These findings indicate that the existing renewable energy deployment plans can make a substantial contribution toward achieving the NDC target. However, meeting the required GHG reduction levels will necessitate a combination of diverse policy measures and integrated planning across the building and power sectors.
Abstract
In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent to which building electrification derived from the renewable energy deployment plans of 13 metropolitan governments can contribute to achieving South Korea’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target for the building sector. To that end, we analyzed the renewable energy deployment plans presented in local governments’ carbon neutrality and green growth master plans to estimate electricity generation through 2033. We also calculated the electricity demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential associated with replacing fossil fuel-based heating and hot water systems in residential and commercial buildings with electric heat pumps. The results show that renewable energy generation in 2033 (236,330 GWh) is expected to exceed electrification demand by a factor of 3.6, which corresponds to a national average coverage rate of 368.7%. However, pronounced regional disparities were observed, with coverage ranging from 1,830.7% in Chungnam to 18.6% in Jeju. The net GHG reduction of 11.2 MtCO₂eq represents approximately 38% – 40% of the 2035 NDC target for the building sector. These findings indicate that the existing renewable energy deployment plans can make a substantial contribution toward achieving the NDC target. However, meeting the required GHG reduction levels will necessitate a combination of diverse policy measures and integrated planning across the building and power sectors.