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정치적 위험이 FDI 유입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

A Study on the Impact of Political Risk on the FDI Inflow

박세운|이선혜
한국무역보험학회 (The Korean Academy for Trade Credit Insurance)|2015.06|무역금융보험연구 (Journal of International Trade and Insurance)|제16권 제2호|pp. 87-115|DOI 10.22875/jiti.2015.16.2.005

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참고문헌

키워드

해외직접투자FDI정치적 위험political riskEIU 정치적 위험 지수EIU political risk index

초록

이 연구에서는 1997년부터 2012년까지 정치적으로 안정된 선진국을 제외한 74개국을 대상으로 정치적 위험이 FDI 유입에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 패널회귀분석을 방법을 사용하였다. 정치적 위험 변수로는 선행연구에서 사용하지 않은 EIU가 제공하는 정치적 위험지수와Center for Systemic Peace의 사회적 취약성 지수를 사용하였다. 실증분석결과 1인당 GDP와 GDP 대비 고정자산 형성 변수가 FDI 유입에 유의적인 정의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 휴대폰 사용자와 인터넷 사용자 변수도 FDI 유입에 유의적인 정의영향을 미쳤다. 정치적 위험변수는 예상한대로 FDI 유입에 유의적인 부의 영향을 미쳤다. 특히비영리기관인 Center for Systemic Peace의 사회적 취약성 지수가 EIU의 정치적 위험지수보다 통계적인 유의성이 높았다. 이것은 정치적 위험 지수에는 문화적, 사회적 요인보다 경제적 요인을 더 중요하게 여기고 있는데 반하여 다국적 기업은 단기간에 개선시킬 수 없는 문화적, 사회적 요인을 더 중요하게 여기고있는데 기인하고 있는 것으로 추정된다.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of political risk on FDI inflow using panel data of 74 nations excluding most advanced countries from 1997 to 2012. As political risk variable, it employs political risk index provided by Economist Intelligence Unit, democracy and state fragility index by Center for Systemic Peace, respectively. As a result of this empirical analysis, this study finds that GDP per capita and fixed asset per GDP have statistically positive influence on FDI inflow as expected. Mobile phone users and internet users have statistically positive influence on FDI inflow too. Political risk variables have statistically negative influence on FDI inflow. In particular, state fragility index proves to have more significant and bigger coefficients than political risk index from EIU. This may be because country risk puts more weight on economic variables in its combination while state fragility is more focused on social structure and cultural elements. Multinational corporations may think that economic conditions can be improved in a relatively shorter period than social and cultural conditions.

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