중소기업의 아시아 이머징 마켓 해외직접투자 확대에 따른 정치적 위험 평가와 대응방안
A Study on Ratings of Political Risk and It's Measures in FDI of SME in Asian Emerging Markets
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초록
오늘날 이머징 마켓에서 발생할 수 있는 정치적 위험은 정책위험으로서 이는 정치적 사건에의해 발생할 수 있는 수용위험보다 더욱 빈번히 발생할 수 있는 위험이다. 이머징 마켓은 선진국의경기에 매우 민감하게 반응하는 경제권이어서 최근 미국과 유럽 등의 경제위기에 의해 이들 이머징마켓 국가들의 정책적 변화가 예상된다. 따라서 본 연구는 우리나라 중소기업의 해외직접투자시 노출되는 정치적 위험 평가내용과 절차에 대하여 살펴보고, 특히 우리나라 중소기업의 유망투자진출 지역으로서 아시아 이머징 마켓의 정치적 환경을 어떻게 평가하여야 하는지 그리고 이머징 마켓에서의 정책위험 회피 방안을 제시하는데 그 목적이 있다.
Abstract
Today, Asian emerging markets such as China and India have more of an impact on global direct investment that before. Korean SME are investing in the markets much more than large Korean companies. The important issue to underline is that direct investing especially by small-medium sized firms in emerging markets today requires a broader set of evaluation tools on political risks than were utilized in the past. The potential for political risk in this area is estimated as higher than that in developed countries. Recently, a government of an emerging market changed the laws,regulations, or contracts governing an investment in a way that reduces foreign investor's financial returns. The risk is called policy risk. It has increased dramatically as seizure risk has decreased. But it's hard to hedge against policy risks and the traditional and contractual instruments that firms use to protect foreign assets and the income streams from their investments against subtile regulatory control of host countries have limited value. Therefore, SME must develop proactive political management strategies in order to avoid losses in foreign business activities. This paper offers a methodology of political risk ratings on the basis of BERI and PRS and provides measures against political risks, and insights in political behaviors for Korean SME engaged in Asian emerging markets.
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