관광개발사업의 재무성 분석에 있어 실물옵션의 적용타당성 분석
A Feasibility Analysis of Real Option as Financial Analysis about Tourism Development Business
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초록
This study aimed to conduct a feasibility analysis of real option as financial analysis about tourism development business. NPV method and IRR method, which had been used as financial analysis, could not reflect future uncertainty and volatility and therefore, real option, which can reflect dynamic change according to the course of time, was presumed as an alternative to analyze its feasibility. According to the analysis result, it was shown that tourism development business has great characteristics of uncertainty and volatility during the business period due to the large investment volume and the long-term operation period and that real option was adequate to be adopted. It was found that following options could be applied; option to abandon and option to alter operating scale in case of changes in economic situations such as financial crisis and economic recession; option to abandon and option to switch in case of changes in government policies, promotion intention of the central and the local government; option to defer, option to alter operating scale and time to build option in case of failure in fund raising and decrease in financing ability; option to abandon, option to alter operating scale and option to switch in case of difficult business proceeding due to objection of regional people and concerned parties; and, option to defer and option to alter operating scale in case of decreasing of demand and profitability due to external non-economic factors such as war, terror, infectious diseases. This study has a meaning to have suggested a ground to verify feasibility of real option as financial analysis about tourism development business and also to apply strategic and flexible decision-making to tourism development business.
Abstract
This study aimed to conduct a feasibility analysis of real option as financial analysis about tourism development business. NPV method and IRR method, which had been used as financial analysis, could not reflect future uncertainty and volatility and therefore, real option, which can reflect dynamic change according to the course of time, was presumed as an alternative to analyze its feasibility. According to the analysis result, it was shown that tourism development business has great characteristics of uncertainty and volatility during the business period due to the large investment volume and the long-term operation period and that real option was adequate to be adopted. It was found that following options could be applied; option to abandon and option to alter operating scale in case of changes in economic situations such as financial crisis and economic recession; option to abandon and option to switch in case of changes in government policies, promotion intention of the central and the local government; option to defer, option to alter operating scale and time to build option in case of failure in fund raising and decrease in financing ability; option to abandon, option to alter operating scale and option to switch in case of difficult business proceeding due to objection of regional people and concerned parties; and, option to defer and option to alter operating scale in case of decreasing of demand and profitability due to external non-economic factors such as war, terror, infectious diseases. This study has a meaning to have suggested a ground to verify feasibility of real option as financial analysis about tourism development business and also to apply strategic and flexible decision-making to tourism development business.
참고문헌 (39)
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