From a Buffer Zone to a Strategic Burden: Evolving Sino-North Korea Relations during Hu Jintao Era
0
조회
0
다운로드
39
인용
0
참고문헌
초록
The purpose of this article is to understand China’s changing strategic views on North Korea during Hu Jintao’s era and to consider the implications for South Korea’s policies toward North Korea and China. Sino-North Korea cooperation can be theoretically explained by the alliance transition theory, a modified one from the political realist perspective. The implications of the alliance transition theory are that China would strengthen its alliance with North Korea, seek to weaken the South KoreaU.S. alliance, and induce South Korea to cooperate with China, while preventing North Korea from getting close to the United States. However, it is noteworthy that even in China, there exist various groups of strategic thinking in international relations on China’s roles in North Korean issues. North Korea’s incessant provocations have effects on mobilizing the Developing Country Diplomacy School as well as the Rising Great Power Diplomacy School against North Korea. Such incidences would soon reverse the rule of thumb of North Korea’s strategic value rising alongside regional tensions,calling into question in China, again, the strategic value of North Korea. China still maintains its previous policy priorities at askance, but since North Korea’s second nuclear test, the contents have been changing reflecting the changing security environments and its recalculation of national interests. As the more the North Korean nuclear crisis deepens, threatening peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, the more China would positively think over North Korea’s contingency intensifying cooperation with the United States. In such transition,the stronger the rising great power thinkers, the less the diplomatic space for North Korea exists. North Korea would stop being a buffer zone but a strategic burden in their perspective, transforming China’s relationship with North Korea from a special relationship to a normal state-to-state relationship.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to understand China’s changing strategic views on North Korea during Hu Jintao’s era and to consider the implications for South Korea’s policies toward North Korea and China. Sino-North Korea cooperation can be theoretically explained by the alliance transition theory, a modified one from the political realist perspective. The implications of the alliance transition theory are that China would strengthen its alliance with North Korea, seek to weaken the South KoreaU.S. alliance, and induce South Korea to cooperate with China, while preventing North Korea from getting close to the United States. However, it is noteworthy that even in China, there exist various groups of strategic thinking in international relations on China’s roles in North Korean issues. North Korea’s incessant provocations have effects on mobilizing the Developing Country Diplomacy School as well as the Rising Great Power Diplomacy School against North Korea. Such incidences would soon reverse the rule of thumb of North Korea’s strategic value rising alongside regional tensions,calling into question in China, again, the strategic value of North Korea. China still maintains its previous policy priorities at askance, but since North Korea’s second nuclear test, the contents have been changing reflecting the changing security environments and its recalculation of national interests. As the more the North Korean nuclear crisis deepens, threatening peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, the more China would positively think over North Korea’s contingency intensifying cooperation with the United States. In such transition,the stronger the rising great power thinkers, the less the diplomatic space for North Korea exists. North Korea would stop being a buffer zone but a strategic burden in their perspective, transforming China’s relationship with North Korea from a special relationship to a normal state-to-state relationship.
참고문헌 (48)
- Woosang Kim, "Power Transitions and Great Power Wars from Westphalia to Waterloo", World Politics, 45(1), pp.153~172 (1992)
- 박홍서, "중국의 부상과 탈냉전기 중미 양국의 대한반도 동맹전략:동맹전이 이론의 시각에서", 한국정치학회보, 42(1), pp.299~317 (2008), 한국정치학회
- Xiaohe Cheng, "Debates on Ideology or Security", Waijiao Pinglun, (2) (2009)
- Jongseok Lee, "Sino-North Korea Relations: 1945-2000" (2000), Zhoongsim
- Myunghae Choi, "Sino-North Korea Alliance Relationship" (2009), Oreum
- Yoichi Funabashi, "The Last Gamble of Kim Jong Il", JoongAng Dailynews Media, ~ (2007)
- Yangsan Eou, "China’s Secret File on North Korea" (2008), HanEul
- North Korean ‘Adventurism’ and China’s Long Shadow, 1966-1972, "Bernd Schaefer", Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, ~, pp.working paper no. 44 (2004)
- Limits of the ‘Lips and Teeth’ Alliance: New Evidence on Sino-DPRK Relations, 1955-1984’, "James Person", Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, ~ (2009)
- Juche and North Korea’s Global Aspirations, "Charles K. Armstrong", Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, ~, pp.working paper no. 1 (2009)
- Policy Planning Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, "China’s Diplomacy", pp.100~ (2007), Shijiezhishi Publisher
- 김흥규, "중국 외교정책 결정과정: 대 한반도 정책 결정과정에 대한 이해를 위한 초보적 분석", 신아세아, 15(3), pp.60~91 (2008), 신아시아연구소
- Shades of Red: China’s Debate over North Korea, "International Crisis Group", ~, pp.Asia Report, no. 179 (2009)
- Bonnie Glaser, "Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor", pp.676~ (2008), CSIS
- Gong Keyu, "Tension on the Korean Peninsula and Chinese Policy", International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 18(1), pp.93~119 (2009), 통일연구원
- Cheng Qirong, "China’s Foreign Policy since Reform and Opening Up (1978-2008)" (2008), Shijiezhishi Publisher
- Zhu Feng, "North Korea Nuclear Test and Cornered China", PacNet, Pacific Forum CSIS (2009)
- Scott Snyder, "China’s Rise and the Two Koreas: Politics, Economics, Security", pp.116~ (2009), Lynne Rienner Publisher
- China and North Korea in a Changing World, "Samuel S. Kim", Woodrow Wilson International Center, 12~, pp.Asia Program Special Report No. 115 (2003)
- "Old Problems Trump New Thinking: China’s Security Relations with Taiwan, North Korea, and Japan" (2005)[URL]
- Heungkyu Kim, "The Sino-North Korean Relationship at the Crossroads, In North Korea in Distress", pp.169~192 (2008), Sejong Institute
- Feng Zhu, "China’s Policy on the North Korean Nuclear Issue", China Strategy, 3 (2004)
- Limits of the Lips and Teeth Alliance, "Jian Chen", Woodrow Wilson International Center, ~, pp.Asia Program Special Report no. 115 (2003)
- "Kyunghyang Dailynews", ~ (2009)
- Kim, "China and North Korea in a Changing World", 14~15
- Scott Snyder, "Chinese Views: Breaking the Stalemate on the Korean Peninsula", pp.3~ (2007), U.S. Institute of Peace
- Scott Snyder, "China’s Rise and the Two Koreas, ch. 7" (2009), Lynne Rienner Publishers
- Heungkyu Kim, "Possible Scenarios for North Korea’s Contingency, Chinese Position, and Implications for Korea", paper presented at the first workshop with CFR and Asian Society, pp.3~5 (2009)
- Feng Zhu, "Sino-North Korea Relations after the 2nd Nuclear Test, In The Advent of Obama Administration and South Korea-China Strategic Cooperation" (2010), KINU
- Liangui Zhang, "North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Sino-North Korea Relations, In The Advent of Obama Administration and South Korea-China Strategic Cooperation" (2010), KINU
- , World Knowledge, 13, pp.714~27 (2009)
- Gong Keyu, "Tension on the Korean Peninsula and Chinese Policy", International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 18(1), pp.93~119 (2009), 통일연구원
- Qingguo Jia, "Chinese Perspective: Alliance System and Comprehensive Security in East Asia", paper presented at EAI Roundtable on a ROK-U.S. Alliance for the twenty-first century (2009)
- Shulong Chu, "New Emergence Security Arrangements in Asia", paper presented at EAI Roundtable on a ROK-U.S. Alliance for the twenty-first century (2009)
- Liangui Zhang, "2005: The Year of Turning Point in Resolving the N.K. Nuclear Crisis", World Knowledge (Shijie Zhishi), (2), pp.24~25 (2005)
- Xiaoyan Ma, "Prospects for North Korean Nuclear Crisis", Neibu Canyue (Internal Circulation), (1), pp.18~22 (2004)
- Qiangyi Jin, "Strategies of the United States and Japan in Northeast Asia and North Korean Issue", Dandai Yatai (Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies), (9), pp.20~24 (2004)