필리핀 2017: 호전적 내치(內治)와 줄타기 외교
Philippines 2017: Warlike Powers of Security Forces and Hedging Strategies in Foreign Relation
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2017년 두테르테 정부는 집권 2년차를 맞아 보다 강력하게 치안 유지를 위한 정책을 폈으며, 아세안의장국으로서 자주적인 외교를 표방하였다. 마약과의 전쟁을 계속하였고 아울러 부패 공직자에 대한 처벌을 통해 자신의 정치적 입지를 높이려 하였다. 또한 무슬림 테러조직인 마우테 그룹의 소탕을 이유로 민다나오 지역에 계엄령을 선포하고 대외적으로도 대테러 공조를 강화하였다. 또한 집권초기 화해 제스처를 취하고 평화협상도 추진했던 공산반군과는, 일련의 유혈사태로 인하여 평화 기조를 종결하고 진압작전을 시작하였다. 여전히 높은 지지도에 힘입어 강력한 드라이브를 걸고 있지만 사회경제적으로 낮은 계층과 소수집단들이 점점 소외됨으로써 일종의 불안 요인이 되고 있다. 아세안의장국으로서 두테르테 정부는 기존의 확고한 우방인 미국과도 일정한 거리를 두는 반면, 실질적인 경제적 이익을 취할 수 있는 중국이나 러시아와는 친밀도를 높이는 방향으로 선회하였다. 외부 경제적 지원을 다각화하고 안으로는 세수를 증대하는 정책을 통해 인프라 확립을 우선 과제로 선정했다. 높은 경제성장률을 보이고 있는 필리핀이 확고한 인프라 확립에 대한 기대감도 크지만, 전통적으로 외부 자원에 의존하여 외채 부담을 늘렸던 전철을 밞지 않기 위해서는 세제 개혁이 성공적으로 마무리될 수 있어야할 것으로 보인다. 한국의 신남방정책은 두테르테 자주외교 정책과 접점을 찾는 것이 필요해 보이며, 인프라 개발에 한국 정부나 기업의 효율적인 협력 방안을 모색하는 것도 향후 과제가 될 것이다.
Abstract
In 2017, the government of Duterte, in the second year of the ruling, more strongly promoted peace and order policies and expressed independent diplomacy as the chairman of ASEAN. He continued to fight against drugs and tried to increase his political legitimacy through the punishment for corrupt officials. He also declared martial law in the Mindanao region because of the dissolution of the Maute group, a Muslim terrorist organization, and strengthened counterterrorism cooperation externally. In addition, as to Communist militants, he took the initial reconciliation gesture and promoted peace negotiations, however, concluded the peace tide and started the suppression operation due to a series of bloodshed. He still has a strong drive in peace and order issues, backed up by high support rate, but it is becoming a factor of anxiety as the socioeconomically underprivileged and minority groups are increasingly alienated. As the chairman of ASEAN, Duterte has a certain distance from the United States, which is a firm ally, but has turned to increase familiarity with China and Russia, which can take substantial economic benefits. Through diversifying the external economic support and increase of tax revenue, the priority task was to establish the infrastructure. Although the Philippines, which has a high economic growth rate, has a strong expectation that it can establish a solid infrastructure, tax reforms should be successfully completed in order not to repeat the previous failures, which has traditionally increased foreign debt burden by relying on external resources. It seems that it is necessary to find the meeting point of the foreign policy of Duterte and new Korean government’s New Southern Policy, and to find possible economic cooperation policies to improve Philippine infrastructure.
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