岸田政府外交政策及其影响因素分析:以新古典现实主义为视角

Abstract

After taking office, Fumio Kishida not only inherited Abe's “positive pacifism” diplomatic line, but also further developed it into “realism diplomacy in the new era.” The specific foreign policy of the Kishida administration consists of four aspects. First, the Kishida administration emphasizes on strengthening the close cooperation between Japan and the United States with the U.S.-Japan alliance as the cornerstone to jointly cope with regional and international challenges. Second, promote domestic economic development and enhance international competitiveness through economic diplomacy. Third, actively participate in the “Free Indo-Pacific Strategy” and strengthen cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region to try to balance regional power. Fourthly, tries to build international image and enhance international status through values diplomacy. Based on the theory of neo-classical realism, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of Kishida government's foreign policy, which can be summarized into three levels: the first level is the level of international system. Japan is facing systemic pressure brought by the strategic competition between China and the United States. At the same time, events such as the Ukraine conflict have further aggravated the complexity of its international environment, which has compressed Japan's diplomatic space. The second level is domestic politics. Influenced by Japan's strategic culture, the Kishida government emphasized security needs in its diplomacy. At the same time, Japan's domestic system, government, government and finance triangle system is rigid, and there is the problem of “political black gold”; Japanese society as a whole has shifted to the right, and people's sense of “political alienation” has intensified. The third level is the leadership level. Mr. Kishida is a weak man whose foreign policy largely follows the lines of the Liberal Democratic Party for more than a decade. In addition, there are many factions in the Liberal Democratic Party, and the forces of all parties are strained and difficult to form a joint force.