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김정은의 신외교와 독재자의 딜레마(Dictator's Dilemma), 그리고 빅데이터 역설(Big Data Paradox)

Kim Jong Un's Summit Diplomacy: Dictator's Dilemma and Big Data Paradox

김용호
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2018.12|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제34권 제4호|pp. 123-151|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2018.34.4.005

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빅데이터North Korea북중관계김정은북한외교Kim Jong Un정상회담독재자의 딜레마U.S.-North Korean RelationsDictator’s DilemmaBig Data Paradox
주제분류정치외교학

초록

이 글은 김정은의 정상회담외교가 던져준 세 가지 의문에 대한 답을 구하고 있다. 첫째는 변화의 진정성 여부에 대한 것으로, 미국의 대북압박 및 북한의 위협인식 수준이 임계치에 달한 상황에서 또 다른 시간끌기 등을 추진할 정책적 여유가 없다는 계산이 작용한 것으로 판단했다. 둘째는 중국의 영향력에서 벗어나 대미관계 개선을 추구할 가능성에 대한 것으로, 과거 중국과 소련 사이에서의 등거리외교 메커니즘을 가동할 경우 미중 신균형외교를 추구할 가능성이 충분한 것으로 판단했다. 셋째는 경제발전 추구과정에서 소셜미디어와 빅데이터를 활용해 민주주의 확산요구를 통제하여 독재자의 딜레마를 극복하고, 경제발전과 권력유지라는 두 가지 목표를 동시에 추구할 수 있다는 계산을 할 가능성 역시 배제할 수 없다는 결론에 도달했다.

Abstract

This paper concludes Kim Jong Un’s decision to pursuit summit diplomacy in 2018 was motivated by his perception that another series of camouflage tactics will not be possible since both Kim’s risk-taking level and U.S. pressure on North Korea almost reached the tipping point of actual military conflict. Secondly, it is probable that North Korea will revive its Cold War equidistant diplomacy between China and the Soviet Union into its neo-equidistance between Beijing and Washington, an autonomous move independent from the Chinese influence. Lastly, this paper concludes that it is not at all impossible for Kim Jong Un to maintain his political power and at the same time to pursue economic development if he successfully manipulates and controls social media and big data as China demonstrates, thereby overcoming dictator’s dilemma.

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