지역별 주택가격 상승률이 주택연금 보증기관의 재정건전성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of houisng price increase rate, which is the standard of calculating the amount of housing pension, on the financial soundness of the housing pension guarantee institution (the Housing Pension Service) when applying each region housing prices index. For this purpose, on the basis of the actuarial model (utilized by the housing pension guarantee institution), we calculates the expected profit/loss ratio of each region by employing the same house price increase rate nationwide and each region house price increase rate. We compare the result to apply different regional house price increase rate and examine how it affect the assurance agency. As a method of analysis, a scenario was set up and a Monte Carlo simulation following the scenario was conducted for the analysis of the financial soundness of the guarantor according to the increase rate of the house price by region. As a result of the analysis, it implies that there is a large difference between the expected net profit and the expected increase in the housing price. If the same rate of increase in housing prices continues to be applied across the country, there is a concern that if the proportion of households with low housing price increases is higher than the rate of increase in housing prices, it will be over-priced.