관세동맹의 정치적 함의 - 중앙아시아를 둘러싼 신거대게임의 판도 변화 -
The Political Implications of the Customs Union - The Changed Scene of the Power Game -
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This study investigates the political implications of the Customs Union between Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. There are many studies of the economic effects of the Customs Union. But Customs Union is not only economic event, but also political event. Different studies show the different economic effects of the Customs Union. So, there is ambiguity of the economic effects. And there are possibility of the membership of WTO has more effective. This means that the Customs Union can be better understood by the political perspective. Central Asia has been the scene of the power struggle among USA,China, and Russia. USA has approached to the Central Asia with a few interests, that is, energy resources and the bases for the war against Afghanistan. China has developed the relation to the Central Asia through SCO. A few studies insist that China has an interest in implant NAFTA model to the Central Asia, or integration into The Greater China just like Hongkong, Taiwan etc. But China has had an interest only in economies and never showed the will to exercise political power for the expanding their influences. However, Russia is different. She has never forgotten that the Central Asia is her own garden. So they always exercise their political and economical power to it. After the demise of Soviet Union, Russia’s influences are weaker, but under Putin’s regime, Russia's polices became more friendly to the Central Asian countries. The policy is so effective that Russia can make the Customs Union among three nations, which means that Russia is the winner of the New Great Game.
Abstract
This study investigates the political implications of the Customs Union between Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. There are many studies of the economic effects of the Customs Union. But Customs Union is not only economic event, but also political event. Different studies show the different economic effects of the Customs Union. So, there is ambiguity of the economic effects. And there are possibility of the membership of WTO has more effective. This means that the Customs Union can be better understood by the political perspective. Central Asia has been the scene of the power struggle among USA,China, and Russia. USA has approached to the Central Asia with a few interests, that is, energy resources and the bases for the war against Afghanistan. China has developed the relation to the Central Asia through SCO. A few studies insist that China has an interest in implant NAFTA model to the Central Asia, or integration into The Greater China just like Hongkong, Taiwan etc. But China has had an interest only in economies and never showed the will to exercise political power for the expanding their influences. However, Russia is different. She has never forgotten that the Central Asia is her own garden. So they always exercise their political and economical power to it. After the demise of Soviet Union, Russia’s influences are weaker, but under Putin’s regime, Russia's polices became more friendly to the Central Asian countries. The policy is so effective that Russia can make the Customs Union among three nations, which means that Russia is the winner of the New Great Game.
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