중국경제는 고도성장을 유지할 것인가?

Abstract

The rapid growth rate of the Chinese economy proves to be increasingly inconsistent with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) autarchy. In the efficiency of capital allocation, continuing high growth demands increasing capital intensity in the coastal industrial economy, whereas the political stability demands less efficient allocation of scarce capital in the regional rural economy. Increasing manpower shortage in the coastal economy demands higher wage disparity between industrial workers and rural workers, which is politically dangerous. Management rationalization of the state-owned corporations would relieve the burden of NPLs of the major financial institutions, but the explosion of unemployment level by released workers from the major corporations can be politically suicidal. Every rapidly growing East Asian economies go through a life cycle of high growth stage with 9 to 12 % growth rates, followed by moderate growth rates of 5 to 7% and finally the stagnant growth rates of 0 to 2%. The Beijing Olympic Games of 2008 and Shanghai World Fair at 2010 will inevitably usher in the moderate growth stage for the political viability of CCP.