DDA 개방이익의 권역별 배분과 산업별 기여
Distribution and Sources of Gains from DDA Liberalization
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본 논문은 양허세율 감축에 따른 실행세율의 실질적 감축 폭을 반영하여 DDA의 경제적 효과, 개방이익의 주요권역별 배분 및 산업별 기여를 분석하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 양허세율 감축과 실행세율 감축을 동일시할 경우 DDA 이익이 약 2배 과도하게 추정된다. (2) 기존 연구결과와 달리 NAMA 확대에 따라 발생하는 개방 이익이 농업개혁에 따른 이익을 압도한다. (3) 기존연구와 같이 DDA 개혁으로 개도국이 아주 높은 수준의 이익을 향유한다(DDA 이전 GDP 비중: 21%, 개방이익 점유율: 54%). (4) 한국이 농업개방을 확대할 경우 농업부문의 피해 및 구조조정비용이 총량적 개방이익을 압도하게 된다. (5) DDA협상에서 협상그룹간 이익의 균형을 이루기 위해서는 개도국 비농산물시장 및 EU 농산물시장에서의 개방확대가 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper estimates the economic effects of the DDA liberalization scenarios, correcting tariff binding overhang (large gaps between countries' tariff bindings and applied rates), then, identifies regional distribution and industrial sources of the DDA gains. The major findings of this paper are as follows. First, CGE simulations ignoring the binding overhang severely over-estimates the real impacts of DDA. Second, most of the gains are arising from NAMA (non-agricultural market access), invalidating the argument that agricultural reform is the main source of the gains. Third, developing economies enjoy a disproportionately large share of the overall gains (more than a half, well above their one-fifth share of global GDP). Fourth, developing countries' commitments to widen NAMA and EU's consession to greater reform in AGMA (agricultural market access) are needed to balance the gains between major negotiation groups in DDA talk.
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