한국 서비스 산업의 생산성 분석
Service Sector Productivity in Korea
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초록
한국의 서비스 산업의 노동생산성은 제조업에 비해 낮고, 노동생산성의 성장률도 제조업에 비해 크게 낮아 그 격차가 점점 커지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 1980년부터 2010년 기간의 12개 세부 서비스업을 포함한 총 17개 산업의 자료를 이용하여 ‘산업구조 변화의 생산성 효과 분석법(shift-share analysis)’으로 서비스업의 성장효과를 분석하고 선진국들과 비교하였다. 서비스업의 고용 증가가 경제 전체의 노동생산성 증가에 기여하였으나 최근에는 그 기여도가 감소하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 총요소 생산성을 추계해 본 결과, 세부 서비스 산업 중 도소매업, 음식숙박업 등 전통서비스업뿐만 아니라 사업서비스업, 교육, 의료사회사업 등 고부가가치 서비스업의 총요소 생산성 증가율이 음의 값으로 나타났다. 국가간 자료를 이용한 회귀분석 결과, 인적 자원의 질, 법 ‧ 질서의 수준, 민주주의의 발전 정도가 높을수록, 그리고 대외 시장 개방이 낮을수록 서비스 부문의 생산성 증가가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 경제 여건과 정부 정책을 개선하면 서비스 산업의 생산성과 경제성장 효과를 더 높일 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
The level and growth rate of labor productivity in Korean service sector is relatively low, compared to manufacturing sector. This paper analyzes the growth effect of service sector, using the shift-share analysis with data of 17 Korean industries including 12 individual service industries from 1980 to 2010, and compare it with the USA and Japan. The shift of labor to service sector has contributed to overall labor productivity growth of the Korean economy, but the contribution has decreased in magnitude. The average growth rates of total factor productivity were negative not only in traditional services such as wholesale and retail trade and hotels and restaurants but also high value-added services such as business services, education, and health and social work. The growth regression using cross-country panel data shows that labor productivity of service sector tends to grow faster when qualities of human capital and institutions, and degree of democracy are higher and the level of trade openness decreases. This implies that the better economic environment and government policies can enhance the labor productivity growth of service sector.
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