청주시 경제기반형 도시재생사업이 주변지역 상점 생존기간에 미친 영향

Abstract

This study empirically examines the impact of Cheongju City's economy-based urban regeneration project on the survival of surrounding stores. Using local administrative permit data from 2009 to 2023, store survival characteristics were analyzed across three spatial zones: within the urban regeneration project area, within 500 meters of its boundary, and 500-1,000 meters from the boundary. Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank tests, and Cox proportional hazards models indicated that the spatial scope of the urban regeneration project did not have a statistically significant impact on store survival. Instead, business characteristics and local demographic factors played more critical roles. Restaurants, for example, exhibited a 42.5% lower risk of closure compared to other businesses. Moreover, an increase in the total population change rate was associated with a 16.4% higher closure risk, while an increase in the elderly population change rate reduced the closure risk by 11.2%. Building age and location characteristics also influenced business survival, albeit to a lesser extent. These findings suggest that urban regeneration projects focusing primarily on large-scale facility development may not substantially enhance the commercial environment. Future urban regeneration initiatives in regional cities should adopt comprehensive strategies to stabilize the commercial environment alongside physical infrastructure improvements, with particular attention to demographic shifts and business type characteristics.