북한의 체제전환과 남북통합을 위한 법･제도 구축 - 시나리오 기법을 중심으로 -

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the situations of North Korea over the upcoming decade by developing various scenarios and identify the policy issues for South Korea in consideration of the inter-Korean relations and the Sino-American relations concerning the Korean peninsula. The scenario-based approach adopted for this study feature the following two variables. The first variable is the development over the North Korean issues between the United States and China while the second variable relies on the advances in the North Korean legislative system for the improvement of inter-Korean relations. The analysis of these variables is aimed at estimating the possibility of regime transitions in North Korea and the prospective integrations of the North and South Korean legislative systems and helping establish the policies for the South Korean government. Amid the fast-changing global diplomatics and the dynamics in Northeast Asia, the for major neighboring powers and South Korea will wield large direct and indirect influences on North Korea. As the changes in North Korea will have significant impacts on Northeast Asia and the world as well, the six-party talks for the resolution of North Korean nuclear strife will be a significantly important variable. For this study, four different scenarios - Scenario I (Globalization of North Korean legislation), Scenario II (Partial adoption of South Korea's advanced legislation), Scenario III (Defense of 'North Korean socialism legislation'), and Scenario IV (Building relations with the US and China by blocking South Korea) - were set up to forecast the upcoming decade. The scenario-based approach will suggest a wide variety of possibilities in the regime transitions of North Korea. Based on such scenarios, this study will discuss the policy issues for the South Korean government and the directions for the integration of North and South Korean legislative systems.