인도 은행권의 부실채권 결정요인 분석: 동태적 패널모형을 중심으로
The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in India: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model
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초록
본 연구는 인도의 양호한 경기흐름 속에 최근 우려가 커지는 은행권의 부실채권 결정요인을 분석하였다. 실증분석은 동태적 패널모형을 설정하여 2005년부터 2016년까지 54개 지정상업은행(해외은행 제외)이 대상이며, 거시경제변수 요인(GDP 성장률, 소비자물가상승률, 대출금리) 외에 은행특성변수인 대출규모를 사용하였다. 그리고 여타 기존 연구와 차별화를 위해 금융위기 이전과 이후를 구분하여 분석을 시행했다. 실증분석 결과에서는 전기의 부실대출 비율, 대출규모, 소비자물가 상승률이 현재기의 부실대출 비율에 강한 영향력을 미치고 있음을 볼 수 있었으며, 금융위기 이후에 부실채권 비율이 상승했음을 보여주고 있다. 다만 기존 연구결과와 달리 같은 기간 중 부실채권 비율 상승은 경기상승기에도 높아졌는데, 이는 인도경제가 성장세를 나타낸 2013년 이후 부실채권 비율도 동시에 상승했기 때문이다. 분석결과는 인도 금융당국과 은행권이 기존 부실채권의 관리와 함께 부실채권 비율을 낮추기 위해 연착륙 모색이 필요함을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the determinants of Bank-specific and macro-economic variables on the non-performing loan of scheduled banks(except foreign banks) of India through dynamic panel analysis. The data range from year 2005 to 2016 covering 54 scheduled banks. Macro-economic variables(GDP growth, CPI and lending interest) and bank-specific variable(loan by banks) are selected as the determinants of non-performing loan during before-after global financial crisis. The empirical results reveal from dynamic panel regression suggest that lagged dependent variables(NPL ratio, loan size, inflation rates) and financial crisis have significant effect on the bank’s non performing loan ratio. While comparing the other analysis result of GDP growth increase has associated with higher NPL ratio, the results provide upward trend of GDP growth and NPL ratio after 2013. For the policy implications, we suggest the banks to take appropriate actions to achieve cost efficiency and the excellence of management so to minimize the non-performing loans ratio. The policy makers should focus the macro prudential policies so that the bank level lending rate remains within justified range to reduce the credit risk problems of each bank.
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