인도와 ASEAN간 FTA의 효과에 대한 전망 - 인도와 ASEAN 6개국 간의 무역증진협정 효과에 대한 분석 -

Abstract

This paper analyzes the prospective effects of the Indo-ASEAN (AIFTA). In the case where India becomes the export country, it becomes favorable to most ASEAN countries as an export market. Particularly, according to the estimates of trade complementary indices, India’s exporting industry structure is well in compliance with the import industry structures of Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. According to the estimates of the country bias index, the figure for Singapore is extremely high, which means that Singapore and India are attempting to increase trade volume with each other. Indonesia seems to be the most favorable country for India to promote trade relationships with, while Thailand seems to present several trade barriers. The estimates of the trade complementary index and the country bias index are both very high for Indonesia, while the trade complementary index is high but the country bias index is low for Thailand. In the case where India becomes the import country, and each of the ASEAN countries becomes the export country, India will become the most favorable market for Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, while concurrently becoming unfavorable for Vietnam and the Philippines. Although India and the ASEAN countries may share some similarities in terms of economic circumstances, in practice, it is shown that they actually have many differences in terms of other factors besides international trade structure. In conclusion, it can be argued that the success of the AIFTA agreement will be dependent on the methods in which those countries narrow the differences in their economic situations.