미얀마와 주요 인접 3개국과의 무역확대 가능성에 대한 연구- 인도, 태국, 중국과의 무역구조에 대한 분석을 중심으로 -
A Comparative Analysis Of The Trade Structures Between Myanmar And Its Three Neighbor Countries
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The paper analyzes the possibilities of trade enlargement between Myanmar and its three major neighbor countries, namely India, Thailand, and China. Some findings are as follows: In the case where Myanmar becomes the export country, based on the estimates of trade complementary index, Myanmar's export industry structure is not well matched in compliance with the import industry structure of the three trading partner countries. According to the estimates of the country bias index, however, the figures for the three trading parner countries are sufficiently high, which indicates that Myanmar and Thailand and India are attempting to increase trade volume with each other. In the case where each of the Myanmar's neighbor countries in concern becomes the export country, the estimation results are almost similar to the above case except for India. Overall, India is the country to show the highest possibility to increase the trade volume as long as only the comparative advantage matters, while Thailand and China are not the case. However if we add other strategic factors in our investigation it is hard to tell which country will show the highest possibility to increase the trade with Myanmar because the estimates of the country bias index of each country shows noticeably high in many cases.
Abstract
The paper analyzes the possibilities of trade enlargement between Myanmar and its three major neighbor countries, namely India, Thailand, and China. Some findings are as follows: In the case where Myanmar becomes the export country, based on the estimates of trade complementary index, Myanmar's export industry structure is not well matched in compliance with the import industry structure of the three trading partner countries. According to the estimates of the country bias index, however, the figures for the three trading parner countries are sufficiently high, which indicates that Myanmar and Thailand and India are attempting to increase trade volume with each other. In the case where each of the Myanmar's neighbor countries in concern becomes the export country, the estimation results are almost similar to the above case except for India. Overall, India is the country to show the highest possibility to increase the trade volume as long as only the comparative advantage matters, while Thailand and China are not the case. However if we add other strategic factors in our investigation it is hard to tell which country will show the highest possibility to increase the trade with Myanmar because the estimates of the country bias index of each country shows noticeably high in many cases.
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