트럼프 2기 정부 출범과 러시아-중국 관계

Abstract

This study analyzes the policies of the Second Trump Administration toward Russia and China, focusing on their implications for Russia-China relations. Changes in the bilateral relationship, even without considering structural factors, largely depend on the consistency and credibility of U.S. policies toward both countries. Unlike the Biden Administration, the Second Trump Administration pursues a “reset” with Russia through the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, while simultaneously attempting “strategic containment” of China by rapidly recalibrating economic and trade relations. A key motivation behind these contrasting strategies is to prevent Russia from becoming subordinated to China by encouraging strategic distancing. The Second Trump Administration’s approach is based on the assumption that Russia is dissatisfied with its subordinate status relative to an increasingly dominant China, and that the United States can leverage Russia’s mistrust of China’s intentions. However, this conciliatory approach toward Russia has already encountered considerable resistance from mainstream elites. Consequently, the “reset” policy appears unlikely to be sustainable, and both President Vladimir Putin and the Russian public are expected to remain skeptical of the administration’s overtures.