중앙행정기관의 생존과 성장에 관한 연구
The Survival and Growth of Central Governments in Korea
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구는 우리나라의 중앙행정기관의 생존과 성장에 대해 분석한 논문이다. 정치적 생존, 관리적생존, 환경적 생존을 고려한 생존모형과 성장모형을 구성하여 1965년부터 2006년 사이의중앙행정기관의 조직변동 과정에서 폐지위험성과 성장가능성을 동시에 분석하였다. 정부의 폐지와 생존을 비모수적 모형(Cox Model)을 이용하여 분석한 결과, 중앙행정기관은 신설후 20년 이내에 폐지될 확률이 50%를 상회하였다. 구체적으로 첫째, 조직 내부적 요인보다는 정치적요인에 의한 정부폐지의 가능성이 높았다. 정부의 기능, 조직외적 환경 등의 요인이 악화되었을경우 중앙행정기관의 생존에 가장 큰 영향을 미칠 것이라는 예측은 빗나갔다. 둘째, 정부성장은 조직의 인력과 예산이라는 규모로 측정하여 통합회귀분석 기법으로 분석한 결과,두 가지의 규모증대는 경제적 기능 수행, 장관급 기관, 실업률이라는 요인 때문임이 밝혀졌다. 아울러개별 기관의 예산과 인력은 상호 확대에 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤다. 다른 요인보다 정치적 요인의 강화가중앙행정기관의 존폐에 큰 영향을 미치며, 경제적 기능수행과 장관급 기관은 기관규모의 성장에정(+)의 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the termination and growth of central government organizations in Korea. The emphasis in this article is on the probabilities of both organizational termination andorganizational growth between the year of 1965 and 2006, by constructing dynamic organizationalchange in terms of politics, management, and environment. Cox regression model is used to estimate the chance of organizational survival. The resultis that the central governmental organization has a more than 50% termination rates since oneof the organization had been established. Agencies and administrations at the national levelare more likely to be terminated due to the political factors rather than managerial factors. Pooled regression models are utilized to test organizational growth in terms of both the numberof public servants and organizational budget. The variables such as economic function anda Secretary has a positive effect on the organizational growth. A longitudinal data analysis showsorganizational survival has negative effects on the organizational growth of the CentralGovernments in Korea.
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