기후변화에 따른 글로벌 농업생산성 변화의 경제적 효과 분석
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Global CGE Analysis
1
조회
0
다운로드
6
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study analyzes the economic impacts of crop productivity change that will be caused by global climate change. It is also investigated whether liberalizing crop trade will exacerbate or offset the losses from climate change. Applying the PEP-w-1 global CGE model using the GTAP 8 DB shows that most of the welfare effects are generated by the change in crop productivity, and trade liberalization plays very limited role as far as the change in world GDP is concerned. However, it is also found that trade liberalization affects welfare in several regions where their protection rates are high. Moreover, crop production and self-sufficiency in each region are substantially affected by trade liberalization even if welfare in the region is affected very little because of product substitution.
Abstract
This study analyzes the economic impacts of crop productivity change that will be caused by global climate change. It is also investigated whether liberalizing crop trade will exacerbate or offset the losses from climate change. Applying the PEP-w-1 global CGE model using the GTAP 8 DB shows that most of the welfare effects are generated by the change in crop productivity, and trade liberalization plays very limited role as far as the change in world GDP is concerned. However, it is also found that trade liberalization affects welfare in several regions where their protection rates are high. Moreover, crop production and self-sufficiency in each region are substantially affected by trade liberalization even if welfare in the region is affected very little because of product substitution.
참고문헌 (41)
- 권오상, "기후변화가 쌀 단수변화에 미치는 영향 : 비모수적 및 준모수적 분석", 농업경제연구, 49(5), pp.45~64 (2008), 한국농업경제학회
- 권오상, "기상이변에 따른 농업생산 손실의 경제적 효과: 투입산출 및 CGE 분석", 농업경제연구, 53(2), pp.1~32 (2012), 한국농업경제학회[DOI]
- 권오상, "기후변화에 따른 농업생산성 변화의 일반균형효과 분석", 자원환경경제연구, 21(4), pp.947~980 (2012), 한국환경경제학회
- 농업부문 전망모형 구축 연구, "김명환", 한국농촌경제연구원, ~ (2008)
- 박경원, "동태 실증수리계획법(PMP)을 이용한 기후변화의 경제적 효과 분석 : 쌀 생산성 변화를 중심으로", 농업경제연구, 52(2), pp.51~76 (2011), 한국농업경제학회
- DDA 타결의 경제적 효과 분석과 정책과제, "서진교", 대외경제정책연구원, ~ (2009)
- 우리나라 기후변화의 경제학적 분석(I), "한국환경정책·평가연구원", ~ (2009)
- 우리나라 기후변화의 경제학적 분석(II), "환경부", ~ (2011)
- Ainsworth, E. A., "FACE-ing the Facts: Inconsistencies and Interdependence among Field, Chamber and Modeling Studies of Elevated CO2 Impacts on Crop Yield and Food Supply", New Phytologist, 179, pp.5~9 (2008)
- Alcamo, J., "A New Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Food Production Shortfalls and Water Availability in Russia", Global Environmental Change, 17, pp.429~444 (2007)
- Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models, "Annabi, N.", PEP Research Institute, ~, pp.MPIA Working Paper 2006-04 (2006)
- Arndt, C., "Parametric Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model: A Maximum Entropy Approach", Economic Modelling, 19, pp.375~398 (2002)
- Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture, "Bosello, F.", FEEM, ~ (2005)
- Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture, "Calzadilla, A.", ~, pp.Working Paper FNU-185 (2010)
- Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A CGE Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture, "Calzadilla, A.", ESRI, 381~, pp.Working Paper, No. 381 (2011)
- Decaluwe, B., "The PEP Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model Single-Country, Static Version, PEP-1-1, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)" (2012), MPIA Research Network
- Hertel, T. W., "Global Trade Analysis: Models and Applications" (1997), Cambridge University Press
- Hertel, T. W., "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030", Global Environmental Change, 20, pp.577~585 (2010)
- Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "IPCC", IPCC, ~ (2007)
- Lemelin, A., "The PEP Standard Multi-Region, Single-Period World Model: PEP-w-1, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)" (2012), MPIA Research Network
- Loebell, D. B., "Global Scale Climate-Crop Yield Relationships and the Impacts of Recent Warming", Environmental Research Letters, 2, pp.014002~ (2007)
- Lofgren, H., "A Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model in GAMS" (2002), IFPRI Microcomputers in Policy Research
- Long, S. P., "Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations", Science, 312, pp.1918~1921 (2006)
- Matthews, R. B., "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia" (1995), CABI
- McDonald, S., "Globe v1: A SAM Based Global CGE Model Using GTAP Data", Globe Short Course, ~ (2007)
- Nelson, G. C., "Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options", IFPRI, ~ (2010)
- Nordhaus, W., "A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming" (2008), Yale University Press
- Nordhaus, W., "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling, In Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling Vol 1B" (2013), Elsevier B.V
- OECD, "The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation: Policies and Options for Global Action Beyond 2012", ~ (2009)
- OECD, "Economic Outlook, Volume 2012 Issue 1, No. 91", ~ (2012)
- Palatnik, R. R., "Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies", Climate Change Modelling and Policies Programme, Fondazione Eni Enrico Matttei (FEEM), ~ (2008)
- Palatnik, R. R., "Land Transformation Analysis and Application", paper presented in the 18th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in Rome (2011)
- Rosenzweig, C., "mplications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study" (1994), United States Environmental Protection Agency
- Schlenker, W., "Robust Negative Impacts of Climate Change on African Agriculture", Environmental Research Letters, 5, pp.014010~ (2010)
- Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects, "Schlenker, W.", NBER, ~, pp.Working Paper 13799 (2008)
- Stern, N., "The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review" (2007), Cambridge University Press
- A Comparison between the PEP 1-1 Model and the IFPRI Standard Model, "Traore, F.", AGRODEP, ~, pp.AGRODEP Technical Note TN-01 (2012)
- Tsigas, M. E., "Climate Change and Agriculture, In Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications" (1997), Cambridge University Press
- UN, "World Population Prospects : The 2010 Revision", ~ (2011)
- Exploring Food Price Scenarios towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Regional Model, "Willnbockel, D.", Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, ~ (2011)
- WTO, "TN", AG, 4, pp.Rev. 3, Revised Draft Modalities for Agriculture[DOI]