CGE 모형을 활용한 농업 가뭄의 직간접적 파급효과 계측 - 쌀 생산성을 중심으로 -
Evaluation of Economic Effects of Agricultural Drought Using CGE Model - Focus on Rice Productivity -
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021∼2040 is higher than other periods (2040∼2061, 2081∼2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector
Abstract
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021∼2040 is higher than other periods (2040∼2061, 2081∼2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector
참고문헌 (17)
- Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models, "Annabi, N.", PEP Research Institute, ~, pp.MPIA Working Paper 2006-04 (2006)
- Arndt, C., "Parametric Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model : A Maximum Entropy Approach", Economic Modelling, 19, pp.375~398 (2002)
- Burfisher, M. E., "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models", pp.11~16 (2016), Cambridge University Press
- Building and Assessing Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change for National Risk Management : Economic analysis of the extreme climate risks, "Chae Y. R.", Korea Environmental Institute, ~ (2022)
- Decaluwé, B., "PEP-1-1 the PEP Standard Singlecountry, Static CGE Model, Partnership for Economic Policy-PEP", ~ (2013)
- Freire-González, J., "The economic impacts of droughts : A framework for analysis", Ecological economics, 132, pp.196~204 (2017)
- Just, R. E., "The Welfare Economics of Public Policy", pp.175~179 (2004), Edward Elgar
- 곽지혜, "기후변화와 강우분포 및 CN에 따른 미래 홍수량 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 62(6), pp.85~95 (2020), 한국농공학회[DOI]
- 권오상, "기후변화에 따른 농업생산성 변화의 일반균형효과 분석", 자원환경경제연구, 21(4), pp.947~980 (2012), 한국환경경제학회
- 권오상, "기상이변에 따른 농업생산 손실의 경제적 효과: 투입산출 및 CGE 분석", 농업경제연구, 53(2), pp.1~32 (2012), 한국농업경제학회[DOI]
- 이승호, "상･하향 통합모형을 활용한 농업 수자원 부족의 경제적 효과 분석", 농촌계획, 23(4), pp.111~126 (2017), 한국농촌계획학회[DOI]
- Lofgren, H., "A Standard Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Model in GAMS(Vol. 5)", International Food Policy Research Institute, ~ (2002)
- RDA, "SSP Climate Change Scenario Detailing Data Production Technology Guide for Agricultural Application", ~ (2021)
- The effects of Extreme Events on Korean Agricultural Sector, "Sung, J. H.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~ (2019)
- 성재훈, "가뭄과 생산기반 정비사업이 쌀 생산성에 미치는 영향", 한국농림기상학회지, 19(4), pp.293~303 (2017), 한국농림기상학회
- 성재훈, "가뭄의 경제적 파급효과 분석: 쌀 생산을 중심으로", 농촌경제, 41(3), pp.1~23 (2018), 한국농촌경제연구원[DOI]
- The Global Risks Report 2022 17th edition, In partnership with Marsh McLennan, SK Group and Zurich Insurance Group, "WEF", the World Economic Forum, ~ (2022)