증거-가설 검증(메트릭스)에 기반한 수사관의 확증편향 감소방안에 관한 연구
Reducing Police Investigators’ Confirmation Bias Using Evidence-Hypothesis Testing Matrix
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초록
수사관들은 사건 초기에 발생한 확증편향으로 인해 편향된 의사결정을 내릴 수 있고, 이러한 인지 오류는 사법절차의 마지막 단계인 재판 판결에까지 돌이킬 수 없는 파급력을 행사할 수 있다. 그러나, 수사관들은 이전 사건들을 처리하면서 얻은 수사경험들을 기반으로 필연적으로 휴리스틱을 사용하며, 이는 때로는 효율적이고 신속한 의사결정을 내릴 수 있게 해주는 이점을 가지고 있다. 주목할 점은 대부분의 수사 초기단계에서 수사관들은 범죄 혐의에 대해 명확히 설명해주는 직접증거 보다 신고자의 진술이나 정황 증거와 같은 간접증거들을 가지고 긴박하게 수사 결정을 내려야 한다는 것이다. 또한, 현행법상 수사 과정에서 수사관들이 설정한 범죄가설에 대하여 객관화할 수 있는 추론법이나 검증방법이 부재한 현실이다. 본 연구에서는 국외에서 소개된 ACH(경쟁가설 분석법)와 증거 매트릭스를 기반으로 경찰 수사관들의 의사결정 과정에서 활용될 수 있는 ‘증거-가설 검증표’를 고안하였다. 이 검증표는 수사관들이 확보한 증거들을 바탕으로 가설들을 반증하여 가장 설득력 있는 가설을 탐색하도록 시각화해주며, 피의자신문과 추가적인 수사에 있어서 좀 더 과학적이고 객관적으로 접근할 수 있도록 도와줄 수 있다. 이는 수사 절차적인 측면에 있어서 수사관들의 수사 방식과 결정의 신뢰성을 확보하는데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
Police investigators’decision-making can be hugely influenced by confirmation bias at an early stage of a case, which then can have a rippling effect on all decisions made from the police to the court stage. However, it is inevitable that the investigators make use of heuristics based on what they learned and experienced in prior investigations. Investigators can take advantage of the heuristics when they need to make efficient and prompt decisions. It is notable that investigators can only secure testimonial evidence such as eyewitness’ or reporter’ statement instead of physical evidence such as CCTV footage, DNA, or fingerprint. This investigative environment can then put considerable pressure on the officers when charging decisions should be made without a delay, and they become reliant on and susceptible to the bias. The current legal system has not yet provided any guidance or methodology to minimize the reliance that can also objectify investigators’ crime hypotheses made in investigations. Therefore, this study initially set out to bridge the gap, introducing a tool that can assist investigators with making decisions, Evidence-Hypothesis Testing Matrix which was devised based on the principles of ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypothesis) and Evidence Framing Matrix of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) technique. This matrix visualizes whether pieces of collected evidence disapproves each of investigative hypotheses, helping investigators opt for the most convincing hypothesis. We believe that this judgment tool, in turn, can contribute to supplementing investigation processes in terms of transparency, reliability, and objectivity.
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