Econometric Analysis of Demand for U.S. Air-passenger Service
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This paper explores economic and noneconomic factors that determine the demand for U.S. air-passenger service. Using time-series data for the period of 1993:I-2006:III, we found that income appears to be a more prominent determinant of air travel than fare. The income elasticity of air travel demand (0.83) tends to be greater than the price elasticity (-0.04). In addition, the demand model is used to forecast the U.S. air passenger-miles from 2006:IV to 2016:IV. The results show that demand for air travel could increase approximately 28 percent in the 2006-2016 period due mainly to increases in per capita disposable income and population. There is little difference in growth patterns in forecasted passenger-miles among the proposed demand model and other forecasting models (the four-point moving average, Holt-Winter model, and estimation with trend and seasonal components).
Abstract
This paper explores economic and noneconomic factors that determine the demand for U.S. air-passenger service. Using time-series data for the period of 1993:I-2006:III, we found that income appears to be a more prominent determinant of air travel than fare. The income elasticity of air travel demand (0.83) tends to be greater than the price elasticity (-0.04). In addition, the demand model is used to forecast the U.S. air passenger-miles from 2006:IV to 2016:IV. The results show that demand for air travel could increase approximately 28 percent in the 2006-2016 period due mainly to increases in per capita disposable income and population. There is little difference in growth patterns in forecasted passenger-miles among the proposed demand model and other forecasting models (the four-point moving average, Holt-Winter model, and estimation with trend and seasonal components).
참고문헌 (21)
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