Freight Demand Forecasting Considering Economic Growth Factors
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This work proposes a methodology to project future freight demand for all commodity types that begin and end in each geographical region and the amount of freight that moves between all origin and destination pairs. Following the traditional four-step demand forecasting framework, the procedure corresponds to trip generation and trip distribution analysis for interregional freight demand. Using future economic growth factors from macroeconomic and input-output models, the amounts of freight production and attraction in each analysis zone are forecasted and taken as given. Subsequently, an iterative matrix balancing method is applied to determine the estimated freight shipment demand for all origin and destination zone pairs. The proposed algorithm is applied to generate predicted future freight demand within the United States from 2010-2050 in five-year increments based on the national freight demand data from 2007. Four different scenarios are proposed that consider variations in both global economic growth and environmental regulation. This study will assist transportation planners and decision makers in public and private sectors to assess how future freight delivery demand on the national scale considering various future global economic growth and environmental policy scenarios will affect various issues such as air quality and human health problems.
Abstract
This work proposes a methodology to project future freight demand for all commodity types that begin and end in each geographical region and the amount of freight that moves between all origin and destination pairs. Following the traditional four-step demand forecasting framework, the procedure corresponds to trip generation and trip distribution analysis for interregional freight demand. Using future economic growth factors from macroeconomic and input-output models, the amounts of freight production and attraction in each analysis zone are forecasted and taken as given. Subsequently, an iterative matrix balancing method is applied to determine the estimated freight shipment demand for all origin and destination zone pairs. The proposed algorithm is applied to generate predicted future freight demand within the United States from 2010-2050 in five-year increments based on the national freight demand data from 2007. Four different scenarios are proposed that consider variations in both global economic growth and environmental regulation. This study will assist transportation planners and decision makers in public and private sectors to assess how future freight delivery demand on the national scale considering various future global economic growth and environmental policy scenarios will affect various issues such as air quality and human health problems.
참고문헌 (20)
- Bishop, Y. M. M., "Discrete Multivariate Analysis: Theory And Practice" (1975), MIT Press
- "National transportation statistics" (2012)[URL]
- Quick Response Freight Manual: Final Report, "Cambridge Systematics, Inc", Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, ~ (1996)
- Cambridge Systematics, Inc., "NCHRP Report 606: Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit" (2008), Transportation Research Board
- Cascetta, E., "Transportation Systems Analysis: Models and Applications" (2009), Springer
- Csiszár, I., "I-divergence geometry of probability distributions and minimization problems", The Annals of Probability, 3, pp.146~158 (1975)
- Deming, W. E., "On a least squares adjustment of a sampled frequency table when the expected marginal totals are known", The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 11, pp.427~444 (1940)
- "Freight analysis framework" (2011)[URL]
- Fischer, M. J., "NCHRP Synthesis 298: Truck Trip Generation Data" (2001), Transportation Research Board
- Fisher-Vanden, K., "Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth", Energy Economics, 34, pp.S359~S365 (2012)
- Hesse, M., "Global production networks and the role of logistics and transportation", Growth and Change, 37, pp.499~509 (2006)
- Assessing the Effects of Freight Movement on Air Quality at The National and Regional Level, "ICF Consulting", Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, ~ (2005)
- 김화중, "Effects of Truck-shared Delivery: A Case of a Korean Mixed Feed Company", Journal of International Logistics and Trade, 14(2), pp.165~173 (2016), 정석물류통상연구원
- 민정웅, "An estimation of gas emissions in Korea’s air transport industry", Journal of International Logistics and Trade, 8(2), pp.117~140 (2010), 정석물류통상연구원
- 임현우, "Modeling Local Service Reliabilities for the Parcel Distribution System", Journal of International Logistics and Trade, 9(1), pp.71~88 (2011), 정석물류통상연구원
- Calibration of The Gravity Model for Truck Freight Flow Distribution, "Mao, S.", Center for Transportation Studies, University of Virginia, ~ (2002)
- Rawling, F. G., "Application of discrete commercial vehicle data to CATS’ planning and modeling procedures", CATS Research News, ~ (1991)
- Schipper, L., "Energy use and carbon emissions from freight in 10 industrialized countries: An analysis of trends from 1973 to 1992", Transportation Research Part D, 2, pp.57~76 (1997)
- Tolliver, D., "Trip generation rates for large elevators: A North Dakota case study", Transportation Research Record, 1966, pp.88~95 (2006)
- Transportation EngineeringPlanning, Inc., "Truck Trip Generation Study" (2003), City of Fontana