Do the Political and Economic Factors Affect Transport Infrastructure Expenditures in Korea?
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The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the political and economic factors and the government’s expenditures in the Korean transport sector. In detail we use economic growth rates, unemployment rates, presidential electoral period, etc and find the relations among these variables and the ratio of the amount of money actually invested to the amount of money as planned. For this purpose, we use the data of the Middle Term Transport Investment Plan and three econometric models; random effects model, random effects probit model, and fractional logit model. Especially, we use random effects model and random effects probit model considering the panel data characteristic of the Middle Term Transport Investment Plan. Of course, we use fractional logit model in that the dependent variable should be bounded between 0 and 1 and fractional forms. The overall results show that the transport expenditure programs could be used to stabilize economic cycles by means of fiscal policies. When the economic growth rates and unemployment rates in the previous years are low and high respectively, the Korean government would enhance governmental transport expenditures to stimulate the Korean economy. It is also concluded that the incumbent party in Korea could pursue their electoral objectives by using the transport investment projects. That is, the incumbent party would be more likely to increase budgetary spending on the transport investment projects in the presidential electoral year.
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the political and economic factors and the government’s expenditures in the Korean transport sector. In detail we use economic growth rates, unemployment rates, presidential electoral period, etc and find the relations among these variables and the ratio of the amount of money actually invested to the amount of money as planned. For this purpose, we use the data of the Middle Term Transport Investment Plan and three econometric models; random effects model, random effects probit model, and fractional logit model. Especially, we use random effects model and random effects probit model considering the panel data characteristic of the Middle Term Transport Investment Plan. Of course, we use fractional logit model in that the dependent variable should be bounded between 0 and 1 and fractional forms. The overall results show that the transport expenditure programs could be used to stabilize economic cycles by means of fiscal policies. When the economic growth rates and unemployment rates in the previous years are low and high respectively, the Korean government would enhance governmental transport expenditures to stimulate the Korean economy. It is also concluded that the incumbent party in Korea could pursue their electoral objectives by using the transport investment projects. That is, the incumbent party would be more likely to increase budgetary spending on the transport investment projects in the presidential electoral year.
참고문헌 (18)
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