지역별 토지이용 및 지역간 교통서비스 특성을 반영한 수단분담모형의 개발

Abstract

Modal Split is the third step in the conventional four-steps model and has as its function the splitting of specific zonal interchanges among available modes, so accuracy really matters at this stage. In general, the current means of model split is analyzed by Logit model, the main variables are generalized cost(travel time & cost). Of all means of generalized cost only because it is difficult to characterize land use(floor area) and transportation services(subway station, interchange), but most of the explanatory variables reflect the characteristics they could have the problem of the lack of predictability. Therefore, this study is widely used in the various zones other than travel costs to reflect the characteristics of the explanatory variables used in forecasting the future to improve the aim is to develop a model. To summarize the results of the study, first, the result which has the difference between the percentages of each mode in destination-area was influenced by land use characteristics(Floor Area of business facilities). Second, in addition to the travel cost and time variables, future predictive variables were used in this study. Interchange and subway stations are affective to mode split. Third, to solve multi-collinearity which is generated by using one variable into same value in each mode's function analysis the relationship between modes rates and explanatory variable, so it is made suitable utility function. As a result, market segment with land use characteristic and variables forecasting available improve Log-Sum and reduce RMSE(car 53%, bus 33%, subway 35%, taxi 9%). The model split model by type developed in this study, therefore, turned out to be superior to the existing one.