PBN 적용을 위한 B576 항공로의 정량적 안전평가 사전 분석
Preliminary Analysis on Safety Assessment of ATS Route B576 before the Implementation of PBN Road Map
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초록
2007년 ICAO 제36차 총회의 결의에서는 모든 체약국들은 2016년까지 항로와 터미널공역에 PBN 절차의 이행을 촉구하였으며, 모든 국제선 공항에 수직유도(APV) 접근절차가 가능하도록 할 것을 요구하였다. 이러한 ICAO의 계획에 따라 대한민국은 PBN 도입 로드맵을 수립하였고, 2016년까지는 인천 FIR 내의 모든항공로와 공항에 PBN이 도입될 예정이다. 혼잡이 심한 서울과 제주를 잇는 B576항로(서울-제주)와 인천과 김포공항의 출 · 도착절차의 전환이 우선시 될 예정에 있으며, PBN 항로의 도입에 앞서 새로운 항로와 변경되는 항로에 대해 안전평가 시행이 요구되고 있다. 이러한 배경을 바탕으로 본 연구에서 인천 FIR 내의가상의 평행항로를 비행하는 항공기에 대한 충돌위험 평가를 수행하였다. 이 연구에서 현재 단일항로로 운영되는 (특정시간에는 오프셋) B576 항로를 평행항로로 가정하여 평가하였다. 충돌위험모델을 이용 시, TLS(Target Level of Safety, 5 × (10)-9 사고/비행시간)를 만족하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 정량적 공역안전평가의 방법론과 과정, 사전적 안전평가에 대한 결과이다.
Abstract
In 2007, the 36th ICAO Assembly resolution (A36-23) urged all member States to implement Performance Based Navigation (PBN) for En-route and terminal areas, and PBN approach procedures with vertical guidance (APV) for all international airports by 2016. According to ICAO’s plan, the Republic of Korea has established the PBN implementation roadmap. PBN based on the instrument flight procedures will be implemented to all airports and ATS routes in Incheon FIR by 2016. The implementation of PBN will be applied primarily in the most congested route of Incheon FIR, B576 connecting Seoul-Jeju, and instrument departure / arrival procedures for Incheon and Gimpo international airports. Before the implementation of PBN, a safety assessment for the new and changed routes is required. Based on this background, we have evaluated the collision risk between aircrafts flying on simulated parallel routes in Incheon FIR. The safety level of the B576 route has been evaluated assuming parallel routes conditions which are currently operated as a single route (sometimes operated by off-set routes). Using CRM (Collision Risk Model), this study shows that the estimate of the collision risk for the simulated parallel route B576 satisfy the Target Level of Safety (TLS) value of no more than 5 × (10)-9 fatal accidents per flight hour. The methodology, process and preliminary results of the quantitative safety assessment on the pre-implemented parallel routes B576 are presented in this paper.
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