북한의 ‘차등적 식량 분배 모형’과 2008년 식량위기

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the North Korea's food situation in 2008 by using the 'graduated food rationing mechanism model,' while the World Food Program and some civic organization have warned food crisis of that country. Starting point for this paper is the fact that estimated food consumption of North Korea had exceeded the necessary amount of food consumption which both were presumed by World Food Program during the year of 2000-2005. But we have continuously heard that food crisis and the upside of market food price of North Korea since mid 1990s. This paper makes the 'graduated food rationing mechanism model' to explain this contradictive facts on the face of it. This model hypothesizes that the North Korean authority have divided the people into four group, and have made each groups ration to be 90% amount of the upper group. This paper examines the food situation during the year of 2000-2005 by using the model. This paper finds that some group received the food below the neccessary amount of consumption and assumes that they would turn into the market demanders for food. This paper also examines the food situation of North Korea in 2008 by using the model, and concludes that the country could manage the food situation only if the country would import more than 2 million tons of food this year.