북한 지전략(地戰略)의 패턴 분석 및 사례 연구
A Case Study of North Korea’s Geostrategy
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고전적 지정학 그레이트 게임의 체스판이 동북아에 펼쳐졌다. 북한의 지정학적 행보에 대한 분석이 필요한 시점이다. 이에 본 논문은 평양의 전통적 지전략의 유형과 전략적 의미를 사례 연구를 통해 살펴보고, 현시대 김정은 정권의 지정학적 도전을 분석하고자 한다. 자칼 수정주의 국가로서 북한의 지전략은 <동맹 포착>과 <분산 투자>로 대별된다. 동맹 포착은 팽창을 기도하는 대륙강대국들에 편승하여 체제 생존을 보장받고 한반도 현상변경 목표에 동맹국들을 연루시키기 위해 활용되는 전략이다. <사슬 결박>과 <비용 전가> 2유형으로 구사된다. 분산 투자는 약소동맹국의 자율성을 제약할 수 있는 <비대칭 동맹>의 부정적 파급효과를 한반도의 지정학적 가치를 담보로 최소화하는 전략이다. <등거리 줄타기외교>와 <자력갱생 자주노선> 두 양태로 표출되어 왔다. 북한의 지전략 선택패턴을 분석하기 위해 이 논문은 ①한국전 남침을 준비하는 김일성 정권의 대소・대중 동맹 포착; ②군사적 자력갱생의 자주노선 추진과 중・소 분쟁 시기 등거리외교; ③탈냉전기 버티기와 핵무장 강행 정책; ④김정은 정권의 러・북 동맹외교 등에 관한 사례 연구를 진행한다. 신냉전의 경쟁 구도 심화는 평양의 지정학적 위기 비즈니스 운영에 유리한 기회의 창을 열어주었다. 한반도의 안정을 유지하고 평화적 통일의 기반 조성을 위해 동맹 강화 및 공약 유기 방지, 현상 국제질서 유지를 선호하는 해양 자유주의 협력 국가들과의 심층 연대, 의도하지 않은 위기 발생과 확전 방지를 위한 동북아 지정학 게임 참여국들과의 전략대화 플랫폼 구축, 국민적 단합과 국론 결집 노력 등을 제안한다.
Abstract
This article aims to analyze Pyongyang’s geostrategies through case studies. 4 historical cases are selected; the Korean War diplomacy; equidistance postures during the 1960s’ Sino-Soviet split, North Korea’s perilous pursuit of the nuclear weapons program, and the signing of the new Russia-DPRK Mutual Defence Pact. North Korea, a typical jackal revisionist state, used to apply geopolitical strategies of entrapment and hedging in order to jump on the continental expansionist bandwagon. The so-called New Cold War in East Asia could open the windows of opportunities, providing favorable conditions for Pyongyang’s geostrategic maneuvers for risky revisionist purposes. It is time for South Korea to strategically reinforce ROK-U.S. alliance and to promote multilayered strong solidarity with the liberal status-quo nations in the Indo-Pacific region.
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