기상-대기질 모델을 활용한2010~2014년 우리나라 PM10 변동 특성 분석: 기상 요인을 중심으로
Analysis on the Characteristics of PM10Variation over South Korea from 2010 to 2014 using WRF-CMAQ: Focusing on the Analysis of Meteorological Factors
2
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구에서는 기상조건 변화에 따른 우리나라 PM10 농도변화 범위를 정량적으로 산정하기 위하여, 2010년에서 2014년까지(5년간) 모델의 입력자료인 국내외 배출량을 동일하게 가정하였을 때 기상조건에 따른 우리나라 PM10 농도변화 범위를 분석하였다. 본 분석에 사용된 모델은 WRF(ver.3.8.1)과CMAQ(ver.5.0.2)이며, 기상 입력자료는 NCEP FNL 1°×1° 자료, 국외 배출량 목록은 MIX 2010, 국내배출량 목록은 CAPSS 2010을 이용하였다. 모델 모사결과는 2010년의 전국 일평균 PM10 농도에 대해 측정값과 0.82의 R값을 보이며 실제 PM10 농도의 증감경향을 잘 나타냈지만, 모델은 실제 PM10 농도와 비교하여 과소모의 하는 것으로 나타났다. 기상 및 대기질 모델을 통해 모사된 우리나라 연평균 PM10 농도는 기상조건의 변화로 인해 2010년 대비 평균적으로 약 2.6 μg/m3의 농도변화를 나타내었으며, 계절별로는 봄, 여름, 가을, 겨울에 대해 각각 4.8 μg/m3, 1.7 μg/m3, 1.7 μg/m3, 4.2 μg/m3의 표준편차를 나타내며 봄철과 겨울철에 상대적으로 큰 PM10 농도 차이를 나타냈다. 전국 18개 권역을 대상으로한 지역별분석 결과에서는 기상조건의 변화로 인해 모든 지역에서 연평균 PM10 농도가 1.0 μg/m3 이상의 표준편차를 나타냈으며, 특히 서울과 경기북부, 경기남부, 강원영서, 충북 지역의 경우 2.0 μg/m3 이상으로 타 지역에 비해 상대적으로 높은 차이를 나타냈다.
Abstract
The impact of meteorological condition on surface PM10 concentrations in South Korea was quantitatively simulated from 2010 to 2014 using WRF (ver.3.8.1) and CMAQ (5.0.2) model. The result showed that seasonal standard deviations of PM10 induced by change of weather conditions were 4.8 μg/m3, 1.7 μg/m3, 1.7 μg/m3, 4.2 μg/m3 for spring, summer, autumn and winter compared to 2010, respectively, with the annual mean standard deviation of about 2.6 μg/m3. The results of 18 regions in South Korea showed standard deviation of more than 1 μg/m3 in all regions and more than 2 μg/m3 in Seoul, Northern Gyeonggi, Southern Southern Gyeonggi, Western Gangwon and Northern Chungcheong in South Korea.
참고문헌 (32)
- Implementation of the SMOKE emissions data processor and SMOKE tool input data processor in Models-3, "Benjey W", U.S. EPA, ~ (2001)
- Science Algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality(CMAQ) Modeling System, "Byun DW", NERL, ~, pp.EPA Report. EPA (1999), 600[DOI]
- Documentation of the SAPRC-99 Chemical Mechanism for VOC Reactivity Assessment, "Carter W.", California Air Resources Board, ~ (1999)
- Chan YC, "Characterisation of chemical species in PM2.5 and PM10 aerosols in Brisbane, Australia", Atmospheric Environment, 31(22), pp.3773~3785 (1997)
- Chen F, "Coupling an advanced land surface hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity", Mon. Wea. Rev, 129, pp.569~585 (2001)
- Choi JK, "Source apportionment of PM2.5 at the coastal area in Korea", Science of the Total Environment, 447, pp.370~380 (2013)
- Dockery DW, "Acute respiratory effects of particulate air pollution", Annual review of public health, 15(1), pp.107~132 (1994)
- Dockery DW, "An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities", New England journal of medicine, 329(24), pp.1753~1759 (1993)
- Guenther A, "A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions", J. Geophys. Res, 100, pp.8873~8892 (1995)
- 한진석, "장거리이동 대기오염물질 이동량의 공간적 분포와 변화 추이(1997~2004년)", 한국대기환경학회지, 22(1), pp.99~106 (2006), 한국대기환경학회
- Hong SY, "A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation", Monthly Weather Review, 132(1), pp.103~120 (2004)
- Hong SY, "A new vertical diffusion package with and explicit treatment of entrainment processes", Monthly weather review, 134(9), pp.2318~2341 (2006)
- Jung J, "Spectral optical properties of long-range transport Asian dust and pollution aerosols over Northeast Asia in 2007 and 2008", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(12), pp.5391~5408 (2008)
- Katsouyanni K, "Short term effects of ambient sulphur dioxide and particulate matter on mortality in 12 European cities:results from time series data from the APHEA project", Bmj, 314(7095), pp.1658~ (1997)
- Kim BU, "Influence of fossil-fuel power plant emissions on the surface fine particulate matter in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea", Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 66(9), pp.863~873 (2016)
- Kim DY, "PM Analysis Using CMAQ in Seoul Metropolitan Area", pp.6~ (2008), Policy Research Gyeonggi Research Institute
- Kim HC, "Regional Contributions to particulate matter concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area, South Korea: seasonal variation and sensitivity to meteorology and emissions inventory", Atmos. Chem. Phys, 17(17), pp.10315~10332 (2017)
- Lee G, "Slow decreasing tendency of fine particles compared to coarse particles associated with recent hot summers in Seoul, Korea", Aerosol and Air Quality Research, 18(9), pp.2185~2194 (2018)
- Li M, "MIX: a mosaic Asian anthropogenic emission inventory for the MICS-Asia and the HTAP projects", Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss, 15(23), pp.34~813 (2015)
- Mlawer EJ, "Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave", Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 102(D14), pp.16663~16682 (1997)
- Annual Report of Air Quality In Korea 2014, "NIER", NIER, 17~18, pp.NIER-GP2015-087 (2014)
- NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analysis, continuing from July, 1999, "NCEP", Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Computational and Information System Laboratory, ~ (2000)
- Nishiwaki Y, "Long-term exposure to particulate matter in relation to mortality and incidence of cardiovascular disease: the JPHC Study", Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis, 30(3), pp.296~309 (2013)
- Seigneur C, "Guidance for the Performance Evaluation of Three-Dimensional Air Quality Modeling Systems for Particulate Matter and Visibility", Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 50(4), pp.588~599 (2000)
- 신문기, "기상인자가 미세먼지 농도에 미치는 영향", 한국대기환경학회지, 23(3), pp.323~331 (2007), 한국대기환경학회
- A description of the advanced research WRF version 3, "Skamarock WC", National Center for Atmospheric Research, 125~, pp.NCAR Tech. Note NCAR (2008), TN-475+STR
- Tao WK, "An ice-water saturation adjustment", Monthly Weather Review, 117(1), pp.231~235 (1989)
- Guidance on the use of models and other analyses for demonstrating attainment of air quality goals for ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze, "U. S. EPA", Research Triangle Park, ~, pp.EPA-454 (2007), B-07-002
- WHO, "Health Effects of Particulate Matter-Policy implications for countries in eastern Europe", pp.6~7 (2013), Caucasus and central Asia
- Willmott CJ., "On the validation of models", Physical geography, 2(2), pp.184~194 (1981)
- Zelikoff JT, "Effects of inhaled ambient particulate matter on pulmonary antimicrobial immune defense", Inhalation Toxicology, 15(2), pp.131~150 (2003)
- Zoran DR, "Respiratory health effects of diesel particulate matter", Respirology, 17(2), pp.201~212 (2012)