WRF-CMAQ 모델링 시스템을 활용한 PM2.5 농도변동 원인 분석: 2016년과 2017년의 가을철을 중심으로
Analysis of the Changes in PM2.5 Concentrations using WRF-CMAQ Modeling System: Focusing on the Fall in 2016 and 2017
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본 연구에서는 지상 기상 및 PM2.5 농도, GOCI 위성의 AOD 등 다양한 관측 자료와 WRF-CMAQ 모델링을 통해 2016년과 2017년의 우리나라 가을철 PM2.5 농도변화 원인을 분석하였다. 지상에서 관측된2017년 전국 평균 PM2.5 농도는 2016년에 비해 약 12.3% (3.0 μg/m3) 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 두 해간PM2.5 농도 차이는 10월과 11월의 두 사례(사례1: 10월 11일~10월 20일, 사례2: 11월 15일~19일) 기간에주로 발생하였으며, 2017년의 기상조건이 2016년에 비하여 국외로부터 대기오염물질의 장거리 수송이 어렵고, 국내의 대기환기 효과를 증가시키는 방향으로 변화한 것이 주요한 원인으로 분석되었다. WRFCMAQ 모델링 시스템을 이용하여 기상조건 변화가 PM2.5 농도에 미치는 정량적인 영향을 평가한 결과, PM2.5 모의농도는 2016년 대비 2017년의 사례1 기간에는 64.0% (23.1 μg/m3) 감소, 사례2 기간에는35.7% (12.2 μg/m3) 감소한 것으로 나타나, 관측 농도 기반 감소율인 53.6% (사례1)와 47.8% (사례2)에상응하는 감소율을 보였다. 따라서 기상조건 변화가 우리나라 가을철 PM2.5 농도 변화에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 기상조건 변화로 인한 우리나라 PM2.5 농도 감소에 미친 국내외 기여율은 사례1 기간에 국외로부터의 장거리 수송영향이 52.8% 그리고 대기환기 효과에 따른 국내영향이 47.2% 로 국내외영향이 유사하게 나타나지만, 사례2 기간에는 국외영향이 66.4% 그리고 국내영향이 33.6%로서 국외영향의 감소효과가 더 크게 나타났다.
Abstract
It was analyzed to identify the cause of PM2.5 concentration changes for the fall in 2016 and 2017 in South Korea using ground measurement data such as meterological variables and PM2.5, AOD from GOCI satellite, and WRF-CMAQ modeling system. The result of ground measurement data showed that the PM2.5 concentrations for the fall in 2017 decreased by 12.3% (3.0 μg/m3) compared to that of 2016. The difference of PM2.5 concentrations between 2016 and 2017 mainly occurred for 11 Oct. – 20 Oct. (CASE1) and 15 Nov. – 19 Nov. (CASE2) when weather conditions were difficult to long-range transport from foreign regions and favored atmospheric ventilation in 2017 compared to 2016. Simulated PM2.5 concentrations in 2017 decreased by 64.0% (23.1 μg/m3) and 35.7% (12.2 μg/m3) during CASE1 and CASE2, respectively. These results corresponded to the changes in observed PM2.5 concentrations such as 53.6% for CASE1 and 47.8% for CASE2. It is implied that the changes in weather conditions affected significantly the PM2.5 concentrations for the fall between 2016 and 2017. The contributions to decreases in PM2.5 concentrations was assessed as 52.8% by long-range transport from foreign regions and 47.2% by atmospheric ventilation effects in domestic regions during CASE1, whereas their decreases during CASE2 were affected by 66.4% from foreign regions and 33.6% in domestic regions.
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