Assessing China’s Intentions: Power, Uncertainty, and Subjectivity
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Americans are increasingly assessing China as a revisionist power rather than as a status quo power. What makes them perceive that China has revisionist intentions? This is an important question given that both, jointly forming the Group of Two (G2), are great powers. This study argues that three factors contribute to Americans’ negative assessment of China’s intentions: increasing economic and military power, uncertainty over China’s plans of actions, and Americans’ subjective interpretation of China’s military and nonmilitary actions. Regardless of China’s true intentions, China’s rapid increase in military and economic capabilities combined with high uncertainty about its intentions create the space for subjective interpretation of China’s actions, which contributes to Americans’ negative interpretation of China’s behavior. The current tension between China and the United States over the South China Sea illustrates how the three variables contributes to Americans’ increasingly negative assessment of China’s intentions.
Abstract
Americans are increasingly assessing China as a revisionist power rather than as a status quo power. What makes them perceive that China has revisionist intentions? This is an important question given that both, jointly forming the Group of Two (G2), are great powers. This study argues that three factors contribute to Americans’ negative assessment of China’s intentions: increasing economic and military power, uncertainty over China’s plans of actions, and Americans’ subjective interpretation of China’s military and nonmilitary actions. Regardless of China’s true intentions, China’s rapid increase in military and economic capabilities combined with high uncertainty about its intentions create the space for subjective interpretation of China’s actions, which contributes to Americans’ negative interpretation of China’s behavior. The current tension between China and the United States over the South China Sea illustrates how the three variables contributes to Americans’ increasingly negative assessment of China’s intentions.
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