본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Assessing China’s Intentions: Power, Uncertainty, and Subjectivity

0

조회

0

다운로드

1

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류정치외교학

초록

Americans are increasingly assessing China as a revisionist power rather than as a status quo power. What makes them perceive that China has revisionist intentions? This is an important question given that both, jointly forming the Group of Two (G2), are great powers. This study argues that three factors contribute to Americans’ negative assessment of China’s intentions: increasing economic and military power, uncertainty over China’s plans of actions, and Americans’ subjective interpretation of China’s military and nonmilitary actions. Regardless of China’s true intentions, China’s rapid increase in military and economic capabilities combined with high uncertainty about its intentions create the space for subjective interpretation of China’s actions, which contributes to Americans’ negative interpretation of China’s behavior. The current tension between China and the United States over the South China Sea illustrates how the three variables contributes to Americans’ increasingly negative assessment of China’s intentions.

Abstract

Americans are increasingly assessing China as a revisionist power rather than as a status quo power. What makes them perceive that China has revisionist intentions? This is an important question given that both, jointly forming the Group of Two (G2), are great powers. This study argues that three factors contribute to Americans’ negative assessment of China’s intentions: increasing economic and military power, uncertainty over China’s plans of actions, and Americans’ subjective interpretation of China’s military and nonmilitary actions. Regardless of China’s true intentions, China’s rapid increase in military and economic capabilities combined with high uncertainty about its intentions create the space for subjective interpretation of China’s actions, which contributes to Americans’ negative interpretation of China’s behavior. The current tension between China and the United States over the South China Sea illustrates how the three variables contributes to Americans’ increasingly negative assessment of China’s intentions.

참고문헌 (58)

  1. Aragones, Enriqueta, "Negativity Effect and the Emergence of Ideologies", Journal of Theoretical Politics, 9(2), pp.189~210 (1997)
  2. Axelrod, Robert, "Schema Theory: An Information Processing Model of Perception and Cognition", "American Political Science Review, 67(4), pp.1248~1266 (1973)
  3. Brzezinski, Zbigniew, "Clash of the Titans", Foreign Policy, 146, pp.46~50 (2005)
  4. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and China Strategic Culture Promotion Association, "U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications" (2013)
  5. Chestnut, S, "Global Giant: Is China Changing the Rules of the Game", pp.237~260 (2009), Palgrave Macmillan
  6. Danner, Lukas K, "China’s Hegemonic Intentions and Trajectory:Will It Opt for Benevolent, Coercive, or Dutch‐style Hegemony", Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 6(2), pp.186~207 (2019)
  7. Renato De Castro, "The Philippines Confronts China in the South China Sea: Power Politics vs. Liberalism-Legalism", Asian Perspective, 39(1), pp.71~100 (2015), 극동문제연구소
  8. "Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission" (2011)[URL]
  9. Dian, Matteo, "The Pivot to Asia, Air-Sea Battle and Contested Commons in the Asia Pacific Region", The Pacific Review, 28(2), pp.237~257 (2015)
  10. Friedberg, Aaron L, "The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable", International Security, 30(2), pp.7~45 (2005)
  11. Gallagher, Michael G, "China’s Illusory Threat to the South China Sea", International Security, 19(1), pp.169~ (1994)
  12. Gertz, Bill, "The China Threat: How the People’s Republic Targets America" (2002), Regnery Publishing Inc
  13. Glaser, Charles, "The Security Dilemma Revisited", World Politics, 50(1), pp.171~201 (1997)
  14. Glaser, Charles, "Will China’s Rise Lead to War", Foreign Affairs, 90(2), pp.80~91 (2011)
  15. Glaser, Charles L, "Rational Theory of International Politics the Logic of Competition and Cooperation" (2010), rinceton University Press
  16. Gries, Peter Hays, "Correspondence: Power and Resolve in U.S. China Policy", International Security, 26(2), pp.155~165 (2001)
  17. Herrmann, Richard K, "Images in International Relations: An Experimental Test of Cognitive Schemata", International Studies Quarterly, 41(3), pp.403~433 (1997)
  18. Huiyun, F, "Is China a Revisionist Power", The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2(3), pp.313~334 (2009)
  19. Ikenberry, John, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive", Foreign Affairs, 87(1), pp.23~37 (2008)
  20. "China’s Role in UN Peacekeeping" (2018)[URL]
  21. Jervis, Robert, "The Logic of Images in International Relations" (1989), Columbia University Press
  22. Johnson, Dominic D.P, "Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics", International Security, 43(3), pp.96~140 (2019)
  23. Johnston, Alastair Iain, "Is China a Status Quo Power", International Security, 27(4), pp.5~56 (2003)
  24. Kazianis, Harry, "America’s Air-Sea Battle Concept: AN Attempt to Weaken China’s A2", AD Strategy, 2014, ~[DOI]
  25. Kertzer, Joshua D, "Princeton Studies in Political Behavior" (2016), Princeton University Press
  26. Kim, Seok Joon, "Costly Signals Matter? Unifying Theories of Signaling and Perceptions in International Relations", pp.2016
  27. Kim, Seok Joon, "Quick on the Draw: American Negativity Bias in International Relations", Presented at the 2019 American Political Science Association Annual Conference in (2019)
  28. 김석준, "Ordinary Citizens as Realists: How do Americans Assess Threat?", 인문사회과학연구, 63(2), pp.5~24 (2020), 인문사회과학연구소[DOI]
  29. China’s Maritime Territorial Claims: Implications for U.S. Interests in CR S Report for Congress, "Kumbaugh, Kerry", Congressional Research Service, ~ (2001)
  30. Kydd, Andrew, "Sheep in Sheep’s Clothing: Why Security Seekers Do Not Fight Each Other", Security Studies, 7(1), pp.114~155 (1997)
  31. Kydd, Andrew H, "Trust and Mistrust in International Relations" (2005), Princeton University Press
  32. Lai, Christina, "Acting One Way and Talking Another: China’s Coercive Economic Diplomacy in East Asia and Beyond", The Pacific Review, 31(2), pp.169~187 (2018)
  33. Liff, Adam P, "Racing toward Tragedy?: China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma", International Security, 39(2), pp.52~91 (2014)
  34. "Can China Rise Peacefully" (2014)[URL]
  35. Mearsheimer, John J, "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" (2001), Norton
  36. O’Hanlon, Michael, "Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan", International Security, 25(2), pp.51~86 (2000)
  37. O’Rourke, Ronald, "Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress" (2015)
  38. Qingguo, Jia, "Peaceful Development: China’s Policy of Reassurance", Australian Journal of International Affairs, 59(4), pp.493~507 (2005)
  39. Rinehart, Ian E, "The Chinese Military: Overview and Issues for Congress" (2016), Congressional Research Service
  40. "Why the United States and China Are on a Collision Course" (2015)[URL]
  41. Rosato, Sebastian, "Inscrutable Intentions of Great Powers", International Security, 39(3), pp.48~88 (2015)
  42. Ross, Robert, "The Problem with the Pivot: Obama’s New Asia Policy Is Unnecessary and Counterproductive", Foreign Affairs, 91(6), pp.70~82 (2012)
  43. Roy, Denny, "The ‘China Threat’ Issue: Major Arguments", Asian Survey, 36(8), pp.758~771 (1996)
  44. Schweller, Randall L, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In", International Security, 19(1), pp.72~ (1994)
  45. Schweller, Randall L, "Neorealism’s Status‐quo Bias: What Security Dilemma", Security Studies, 5(3), pp.90~121 (1996)
  46. Scott, Robert, "The China Toll", EPI Briefing Paper (2012), Economic Policy Institute
  47. Segal, Gerald, "Does China Matter", Foreign Affairs, 78(5), pp.24~ (1999)
  48. Sun, Xuefeng, "United States Leadership in East Asia and China’s State-by-State Approach to Regional Security", Chinese Political Science Review, 3(1), pp.100~114 (2018)
  49. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, "Chapter Two: Comparative Defence Statistics", The Military Balance, 119(1), pp.21~27 (2019)
  50. The White House, "National Security Strategy of the United States of America" (2017)
  51. "U.S. Trade in Goods and Services" (2019)[URL]
  52. US Department of Defense, "Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America" (2018)
  53. US Department of Defense, "Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region" (2019)
  54. Weinberger, Seth, "Institutional Signaling and the Origins of the Cold War", Security Studies, 12(4), pp.80~115 (2003)
  55. Wick, Shelley, "Capabilities, Cooperation, and Culture: Mapping American Ambivalence Toward China", Foreign Policy Analysis, 10(3), pp.289~309 (2014)
  56. Yarhi-Milo, Keren, "In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries", International Security, 38(1), pp.7~51 (2013)
  57. Yarhi-Milo, Keren, "Princeton Studies in International History and Politics" (2014), Princeton University Press
  58. Yarhi-Milo, Keren, "Tying Hands, Sinking Costs, and Leader Attributes", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(10), pp.2150~2179 (2018)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (5건)