Ordinary Citizens as Realists: How do Americans Assess Threat?
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How do ordinary citizens assess threats posed by a rival state? International relations scholars, particularly realists, provide important insights into ordinary citizens’ threat assessment. Based on a survey experiment that utilizes a representative sample of U.S. citizens, this study examines how ordinary U.S. citizens assess a rival state’s threat. This study finds that instead of using all the information available, ordinary citizens utilize information about both state power and intentions heuristically for threat assessment. As a result, U.S. citizens respond as though they were offensive realists under certain conditions (when uncertainty about a strong state’s intentions is high), while they respond as though they were defensive (motivational) realists under some other conditions (when uncertainty about a strong state’s intentions is low). This study makes a theoretical contribution to the existing scholarship by empirically testing at the micro level the baseline assumption of realists of international relations over the role of a state’s intentions in threat assessment.
Abstract
How do ordinary citizens assess threats posed by a rival state? International relations scholars, particularly realists, provide important insights into ordinary citizens’ threat assessment. Based on a survey experiment that utilizes a representative sample of U.S. citizens, this study examines how ordinary U.S. citizens assess a rival state’s threat. This study finds that instead of using all the information available, ordinary citizens utilize information about both state power and intentions heuristically for threat assessment. As a result, U.S. citizens respond as though they were offensive realists under certain conditions (when uncertainty about a strong state’s intentions is high), while they respond as though they were defensive (motivational) realists under some other conditions (when uncertainty about a strong state’s intentions is low). This study makes a theoretical contribution to the existing scholarship by empirically testing at the micro level the baseline assumption of realists of international relations over the role of a state’s intentions in threat assessment.
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