일본 자민당 1강(强) 구도의 붕괴와 이시바(石破)내각: 2024 중의원 선거를 통해 본 일본의 정치변동

Abstract

This study examines the political changes that have occurred in Japan, with the 2024 general election serving as a case study. With approximately one year remaining in its term, the Lower House of the Diet was dissolved prematurely, precipitating the 2024 general election. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a considerable loss of seats, to the extent that even in coalition with its partner, Komeito, it failed to secure a majority. Although some loss of seats was anticipated due to the repercussions of political funding scandals, the magnitude of the defeat exceeded expectations. This study examines the underlying causes of the LDP's electoral defeat through an analysis of three key factor types: ideological (party identification), pragmatic (policy efficacy), and cognitive (image). This study underscores the diminished level of party identification, largely attributed to the defection of traditional LDP supporters, and the lack of support from non-partisan voters for the LDP. Moreover, it indicates a reduction in perceived policy efficacy resulting from a discrepancy between the LDP's campaign promises and the policy priorities of the general electorate. Furthermore, the continuous development of a negative image from the inception of the Ishiba Cabinet until the election 27 days later resulted in a decline in favorability, satisfaction, and expectations toward the LDP on a cognitive level. Rather than being mutually exclusive, these factors are interrelated and complementary, providing a comprehensive explanation of the overall results. It is anticipated that further research of this nature will assist in the forecasting of trends in Japan's political and social landscape.