베네수엘라 차베스정부의 국유화 정책과 국민여론

Abstract

The politics of nationalization tended to evolve in the mode of direct confrontation between government and capitalists as the Chávez government began to push ahead with its nationalization policy after winning a referendum in February 2009. Once nationalization measures came to reach the food industry which in turn further sharpened socio-political conflicts, the tide of public opinion began to exercise influence on the form and direction of nationalization policy. However,public opinion on the nationalization policy has not been well studied by social scientists. It is the aim of this study to analyze public opinion on the nationalization policy, and identify significant causes and causal mechanisms in the formation of public opinion so as to make sense of the background and implications of the strategic choices made by the protagonists of nationalization policy. This study of public opinion came up with three findings. First,an overwhelming majority are in opposition to the nationalization policy, siding with capitalists in their confrontation with the government. Second, Chávez’s reputation exerts greater influence on public opinion about the nationalization policy in comparison with the capitalists’ reputation, a factor with countervailing effect against the capitalists’ edge in reputation. Third, among the various explanatory variables the evaluation of Chávez’s performance turned out to be most influential, while not only Chávez’s evaluation but also his ideological orientation has exerted significant effects on citizens’opinion about the nationalization policy. The current tide of public opposition to the nationalization policy demonstrates the failure of the Chávez government to form a national consensus on the issue of nationalization. It implies that calls for nationalization based upon the need to deal with poor working conditions, violations of basic labor rights, the problem of industrial monopolies, the possible consequence of productivity improvements,and the public good and workers’ control fell short of convincing the Venezuelans of the inevitable need for nationalization measures. The failure of the Chávez government to form favorable public opinion largely owes to the strategic choices made by Chávez and his government. They chose to take advantage of Chávez’s high popularity which far exceeds the proportion of public opinion in favor of nationalization policy. They intended to persuade Chávez’s supporters to endorse Chávez’s transformative policies such as the nationalization policy rather than to engage in dialogue with those who give low approval ratings to Chávez. It was a rational choice for their strategy. However, this typical dichotomization strategy could make it difficult to build up public opinion in favor of the nationalization policy because it could alienate those who don’t give a positive rating to the performance of the Chávez government. As a result, the nationalization policy may face serious national resistance as the political polarization of Venezuelan society intensifies further.