볼리비아의 리튬 자원 산업화 정책과 선택의 정치경제
The Industrialization Policy of Lithium in Bolivia and the Political Economy of Choice
1
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The main purpose of this study is to identify the reasons behind the industrialization policy of lithium in Bolivia. Bolivia has vast amount of lithium reserves. To industrialize its lithium resource, the Morales regime has to choose between two main policy options. One is the ‘state-led industrialization’ policy in which the Bolivian state owns resources and controls all process of industrialization. The other option is ‘industrialization with foreign direct investment’ policy in which the foreign capital and technology become the main players to develop the Bolivian lithium resource. Each policy has strong and weak points. Faced with these options, the Morales regime chose ‘state-led industrialization’ to develop the lithium resource in spite of Bolivia’s short capital and low technology. Bolivian president Evo Morales is a politician whose most important goal is to win the election,so he has opted ‘political certainty’ over ‘economic uncertainty’. Based on the evidence presented in this study, the economic future for Bolivian lithium is doubtful due to various uncertain circumstances. Contrary to the economic uncertainty of developing Bolivian lithium,political reasons for ‘state-led industrialization’ are very clear because resource nationalism and state-centered economic strategy have been the regime’s main economic policy trend. Therefore, the Morales regime could lose its political support if it overturns its economic policy trend for industrializing its lithium resource. In particular, the regime cannot risk to changing its economic policy trend in the face of the next presidential election in 2014. In essence, the study argues that the combination of ‘economic uncertainty’ and ‘political certainty’led Morales regime to choose ‘state-led industrialization’ for developing its lithium resource.
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to identify the reasons behind the industrialization policy of lithium in Bolivia. Bolivia has vast amount of lithium reserves. To industrialize its lithium resource, the Morales regime has to choose between two main policy options. One is the ‘state-led industrialization’ policy in which the Bolivian state owns resources and controls all process of industrialization. The other option is ‘industrialization with foreign direct investment’ policy in which the foreign capital and technology become the main players to develop the Bolivian lithium resource. Each policy has strong and weak points. Faced with these options, the Morales regime chose ‘state-led industrialization’ to develop the lithium resource in spite of Bolivia’s short capital and low technology. Bolivian president Evo Morales is a politician whose most important goal is to win the election,so he has opted ‘political certainty’ over ‘economic uncertainty’. Based on the evidence presented in this study, the economic future for Bolivian lithium is doubtful due to various uncertain circumstances. Contrary to the economic uncertainty of developing Bolivian lithium,political reasons for ‘state-led industrialization’ are very clear because resource nationalism and state-centered economic strategy have been the regime’s main economic policy trend. Therefore, the Morales regime could lose its political support if it overturns its economic policy trend for industrializing its lithium resource. In particular, the regime cannot risk to changing its economic policy trend in the face of the next presidential election in 2014. In essence, the study argues that the combination of ‘economic uncertainty’ and ‘political certainty’led Morales regime to choose ‘state-led industrialization’ for developing its lithium resource.
참고문헌 (28)
- "World Lithium Resource Impact on Electric Vehecles" (2008)[URL]
- Aguilar-Fernandez, Rodrigo, "Estimating the Opportunity Cost of Lithium Extraction in the Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia", 석사, pp.2009
- Biais, Bruno, "Machiavellian Privatization", American Economic Review, 92(1), pp.240~258 (2002)
- Biglaiser, Glen, "The Determinants of Privatization in Latin America", Political Research Quarterly, 56(1), pp.77~89 (2003)
- Boix, Carles, "Privatizing the Public Business Sector in the Eighties: Economic Performance, Partisan Responses and Divided Governments", British Journal of Political Science, 27(4), pp.473~496 (1997)
- Boycho, Maxim, "A Theory of Privatization", The Economic Journal, 106(435), pp.309~319 (1996)
- Lithium - Hype or Substance? A Look at Lithium Demand and Supply, Investment Report, October 2009, "Dundee Capital Markets", ~ (2009)
- Gruber, Paul, "Global Lithium Availability: A Constraint for Electric Vehicles?", 석사, pp.2010
- Guriev, Sergei, "“Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data,” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization(2011), Working Paper version, Advance Access published online on June 23, 2009", ~ (2009)
- Hogenboom, barbara, "The Political Economy of Latin America’s Extractive Industries: The State and Shifting Political Regime", Paper prepared for delivery at the 2009 Congress of the Latin American Studies Association (2009)
- Hollender, Rebecca, "Bolivia and its Lithium: Can the “Gold of the 21th Century” Help Lift a Nation out of Poverty?" (2010), The Democracy Center
- Huber, Evelyne, "Revolution or Contribution? Rational Choice Approaches in the Study of Latin American Politics", Latin American Politics and Society, 44(3), pp.1~28 (2002)
- Kohl, Benjamin, "Material Constraints to Popular Imaginaries: The Extractive Economy and Resource Nationalism in Bolivia", Political Geography, 31, pp.225~235 (2012)
- Kohl, Benjamin, "Introduction Bolivia Under Morales: National Agenda, Regional Challenges, and the Struggle for Hegemony", Latin American Perspectives, 37(4), pp.5~20 (2010)
- Mares, David R., "Lithium in Bolivia: Can Resource Nationalism Deliver for Bolivians and the World?", Prepared by the Energy Forum of the James A. baker III Institute for Public Policy as Part of the Study “Energy Market Consequences of an Emerging U.S. Carbon Management Policy” (2010)
- Opper, Sonja, "The Political Economy of Privatization: Empirical Evidence from Transition Economies", Kyklos, 57(4), pp.559~586 (2004)
- Radhuber, Isabella, "El litio en Bolivia: Reflexiones preliminares acerca de las disputas en curso", Paper prepared for delivery at the Seminar “Transformación socio-ecológica y política energética en América Latina y Europa” (2012)
- Rosa, Jean-Jacques, "When to Privatize? When to Nationalize? A Competition for Ownership Approach", Kyklos, 63(1), pp.110~132 (2010)
- Sherman, Don, "When Electric-Car Batteries Die, Where Will They End Up?", New York Times, ~ (2010)
- "“Lithium,” Mineral Commodity Survey" (2009)[URL]
- Weil, Marcel, "How to Assess the Availability of Resources for New Technologies? Case Study: Lithium a Strategic Metal for Emerging Technologies", Revue de Métallurgie, 106(12), pp.554~558 (2009)
- Weland, Kurt, "Limitations of Rational-Choice Institutionalism for the Study of Latin American Politics", Studies in Comparative Institutional Development, 37(1), pp.57~85 (2002)
- Yarrow, George, "A Theory of Privatization, or Why Bureaucrats are still in Business?", World Development, 27(1), pp.157~168 (1999)
- 이상현, "볼리비아 국영광업공사 구조조정의 결정요인에 관한 연구, 1985-2001", 라틴아메리카연구, 20(3), pp.85~119 (2007), 한국라틴아메리카학회
- Resource Nationalism and the Restructuring of the Natural Gas Industry of Bolivia, "Yi, Sang-Hyun", Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, ~, pp.KIEP Series for Korea’s Mid- to Long-Term Economic Strategy 07-10-04 (2007)
- 이상현, "볼리비아 천연가스 산업과 국유화의 결정요인", 스페인어문학, (56), pp.503~524 (2010), 한국스페인어문학회
- 이상현, "사회운동과 정당정치: 볼리비아 MAS 사례를 중심으로", 라틴아메리카연구, 23(4), pp.147~168 (2010), 한국라틴아메리카학회