페루 정치 불안정의 제도적 요인(2016-2025)
Institutional Factors of Political Instability in Peru (2016-2025)
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This study investigates Peru's severe political instability (2016-2025)—marked by six presidents and nine impeachment attempts—through institutional rather than economic or corruptionfocused lenses. Using process tracing and comparative analysis, it applies a framework integrating three institutional dimensions: impeachment thresholds, party system institutionalization (PSI), and legislative fragmentation (ENP), synthesized into a Composite Risk Index (CRI). Analysis of four presidential cases reveals that weak party institutionalization, extreme legislative fragmentation, and a low impeachment threshold with ambiguous constitutional provisions interact multiplicatively to produce systematic instability. Each president faced relentless impeachment pressures regardless of ideology or strategy, demonstrating that institutional deficiencies override individual agency. The study concludes that without fundamental reforms—strengthening the party system, clarifying impeachment procedures, and implementing electoral reforms—Peru's crisis will persist. These findings underscore institutional design's critical role in democratic stability and offer actionable reform recommendations.
Abstract
This study investigates Peru's severe political instability (2016-2025)—marked by six presidents and nine impeachment attempts—through institutional rather than economic or corruptionfocused lenses. Using process tracing and comparative analysis, it applies a framework integrating three institutional dimensions: impeachment thresholds, party system institutionalization (PSI), and legislative fragmentation (ENP), synthesized into a Composite Risk Index (CRI). Analysis of four presidential cases reveals that weak party institutionalization, extreme legislative fragmentation, and a low impeachment threshold with ambiguous constitutional provisions interact multiplicatively to produce systematic instability. Each president faced relentless impeachment pressures regardless of ideology or strategy, demonstrating that institutional deficiencies override individual agency. The study concludes that without fundamental reforms—strengthening the party system, clarifying impeachment procedures, and implementing electoral reforms—Peru's crisis will persist. These findings underscore institutional design's critical role in democratic stability and offer actionable reform recommendations.