Determinants of Systemic Militarized Conflicts
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This study posits that the international system structure is more accurately depicted by considering different interaction networks in which all system members participate and that a state’s power is more accurately conceptualized by considering how it interacts with all other states in the international system of different networks. The social network conception of national power, derived from the social network conception of the international system structure, is applied to militarized conflicts one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations in order to focus on their power explanations. In examining the hypotheses on balance of power theory and power preponderance theory at the system level, the empirical analyses of systemic militarized conflicts find that the overall results do not reveal any clear support for either theory. The balance of power theory, in general, does have support for the hypotheses on the systemic crises, while the power preponderance theory, in general, supports the hypotheses on systemic disputes. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures indicates that the systemic conflict models with new social network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as Correlates of War index and GNP.
Abstract
This study posits that the international system structure is more accurately depicted by considering different interaction networks in which all system members participate and that a state’s power is more accurately conceptualized by considering how it interacts with all other states in the international system of different networks. The social network conception of national power, derived from the social network conception of the international system structure, is applied to militarized conflicts one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations in order to focus on their power explanations. In examining the hypotheses on balance of power theory and power preponderance theory at the system level, the empirical analyses of systemic militarized conflicts find that the overall results do not reveal any clear support for either theory. The balance of power theory, in general, does have support for the hypotheses on the systemic crises, while the power preponderance theory, in general, supports the hypotheses on systemic disputes. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures indicates that the systemic conflict models with new social network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as Correlates of War index and GNP.
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