South Korea’s Strategy for North Korean Contingency : Beyond Interventions of China and the United States
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This article deals with the Republic of Korea(ROK)’s strategy to prepare for contingency in North Korea. What are Chinese and U.S. interests and strategies towards the Korean peninsula? What are their priorities of stabilization operation in North Korea if Kim Jong Il regime collapses? What is the ROK’s strategy to deal with the contingency and, ultimately, to achieve reunification? The main arguments in this article can be summarized into three points. First, China and the United States have different strategies toward the Korean peninsula, and it could make stabilization operation in the North inefficient and even hamper the reunification process. Second, South Korea should architect its reunification scheme in advance to provide a proper guidance and direction in implementing stabilization operation in the North and coordinating with other parties including China and the United States. Third, South Korea must consider at least three questions in designing future reunification as follows: first, which party should lead the reunification process, the United Nations or South Korea?; second, in terms of time frame, should the reunification be swift or protracted?; third, in terms of the form of reunification, should it be absorption or state-to-state reunification?
Abstract
This article deals with the Republic of Korea(ROK)’s strategy to prepare for contingency in North Korea. What are Chinese and U.S. interests and strategies towards the Korean peninsula? What are their priorities of stabilization operation in North Korea if Kim Jong Il regime collapses? What is the ROK’s strategy to deal with the contingency and, ultimately, to achieve reunification? The main arguments in this article can be summarized into three points. First, China and the United States have different strategies toward the Korean peninsula, and it could make stabilization operation in the North inefficient and even hamper the reunification process. Second, South Korea should architect its reunification scheme in advance to provide a proper guidance and direction in implementing stabilization operation in the North and coordinating with other parties including China and the United States. Third, South Korea must consider at least three questions in designing future reunification as follows: first, which party should lead the reunification process, the United Nations or South Korea?; second, in terms of time frame, should the reunification be swift or protracted?; third, in terms of the form of reunification, should it be absorption or state-to-state reunification?
참고문헌 (27)
- North Korea Contingency Planning and U.S.-ROK Cooperation, "Byun, See-Won", Center for U.S.-Korean Policy, ~ (2009)
- Chambers, Michael R, "Framing the Problem: China’s Threat Environment and International Obligations, in Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military" (2007), SSI
- Cliff, Roger, "Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States" (2007), RAND
- Cho, Soon Sung, "Korea in World Politics 1940∼1950" (1967), University of California Press
- Coghlan, David, "rospects from Korean Reunification" (2008), SSI
- Quadrennial Defense Review Report, "Department of Defense", ~ (2010)
- Dujarric, Robert, "Korean Unification and After: The Challenge for U.S. Strategy" (2000), Hudson Institute
- "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang’s Regular Press Conference on May 27, 2008" (2008)[URL]
- Goldstein, Avery, "Across the Yalu: China’s Interests and the Korean Peninsula in a Changing World, in New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy" (2006), Stanford University Press
- Gill, Bates, "Inside Out", China Security, 4(2) (2008)
- Gill, Bates, "Rising Star: China’s New Security Diplomacy" (2007), The Brookings Institution
- Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea, in United States Institute of Peace Working Paper, "Glaser, Bonnie, Scott Snyder", CSIS, ~ (2008)
- Shades of Red: China’s Debate over North Korea, "International Crisis Group", ~, pp.No. 179 (2009)
- Kim, Samuel S, "The Making of China’s Korea Policy in the Era of Reform, in The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978∼2000" (2001), Stanford University Press
- Kim, Samuel S, "The Two Koreas and the Great Powers" (2006), Cambridge University Press
- "The Korea Herald", ~ (2010)
- Malik, Mohan, "China and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 22(3) (2000)
- "Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the United States Military"[URL]
- Savage, Timothy L, "South Korea-China Relations and the Future of North Korea", The Journal of Peace Studies, 9(4) (2008)
- Scobell, Andrew, "Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea’s Kim Jong Il Regime" (2008), SSI
- Shambaugh, David, "China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term", The Washington Quarterly, 26(2) (2003)
- Chinese Views: Breaking the Stalemate on the Korean Peninsula, "Snyder, Scott", U.S. Institute of Peace, ~, pp.183 (2007)
- Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea, "Stares, Paul B", Council on Foreign Relations, ~, pp.No. 42. (2009)
- Taylor, William J, "Great Power Interests in Korean Reunification" (1998), RAND
- Tkacit, John J., Jr, "How the PLA Sees North Korea, in Shaping China’s Security Environment: The Role of People’s Liberation Army" (2006), SSI
- U.S. Strategy towards North Korea: Rebuilding Dialogue and Engagement, "Wit, Joel S", the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, ~ (2009)
- Wu, An, "What China Whispers to North Korea", The Washington Quarterly, 28(2) (2005)