본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

中ㆍ美관계에 있어서의 북한 변수

North Korean Factor in the US-China Relations

주재우
중국연구소 (INSTITUTE OF CHINESE STUDIES, Hankuk University of Foreign St)|2010.11|중국연구 (Journal of Sinology and China Studies)|제50권 |pp. 553-578|DOI 10.18077/chss.2010.50..026

0

조회

0

다운로드

1

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

the U.S.Operational Plan(OPLAN)the collapse of North KoreaChina and China-North Korea alliance
주제분류중국어와문학

초록

The paper attempts to read the North Korea’s prospect as a variable in the U.S.-China relations in case the country collapses. To date, the collapse of North Korea is perceived by Beijing as extremely unlikely, and thus, a foregone conclusion, while Washington, with firm conviction of the collapse, is gearing up to all possible scenarios and signals as evidenced in official statements, documents, and opinions. If Washington prevails, the consequences are that the U.S., in conjunction with South Korea and even Japan, is scheduled to make an immediate intervention in hopes to restore order and law. American endeavors are likely to draw China’s responses and eventually countermeasures. In the absence of pre-crisis discussions and arrangements between the two, the outcomes of actions and reactions by respective party will escalate the crisis to the level whereby military conflict will be inevitable. Hence, the paper seeks ways to prevent conflicts arising between the U.S. and China over North Korea’s collapse by making policy suggestions based on the finding and readings from the work of those who are supposedly to have some input into or influence over foreign policy decision making process in China.

Abstract

The paper attempts to read the North Korea’s prospect as a variable in the U.S.-China relations in case the country collapses. To date, the collapse of North Korea is perceived by Beijing as extremely unlikely, and thus, a foregone conclusion, while Washington, with firm conviction of the collapse, is gearing up to all possible scenarios and signals as evidenced in official statements, documents, and opinions. If Washington prevails, the consequences are that the U.S., in conjunction with South Korea and even Japan, is scheduled to make an immediate intervention in hopes to restore order and law. American endeavors are likely to draw China’s responses and eventually countermeasures. In the absence of pre-crisis discussions and arrangements between the two, the outcomes of actions and reactions by respective party will escalate the crisis to the level whereby military conflict will be inevitable. Hence, the paper seeks ways to prevent conflicts arising between the U.S. and China over North Korea’s collapse by making policy suggestions based on the finding and readings from the work of those who are supposedly to have some input into or influence over foreign policy decision making process in China.

참고문헌 (60)

  1. Anne Wu, "What China Whispers to North Korea", The Washington Quarterly, 28(2) (2005)
  2. "CIA Briefing Book, Key Analytical Challenges: Priority Issues: North Korea", ~ (1997)
  3. Colin Robinson, "Stand-off with North Korea: War Scenarios and Consequences" (2003), Center for Defense Information
  4. Department of Defense, "2000 Report to Congress: Military Situation on the Korean Peninsula", ~ (2000)
  5. Drew Thompson, "Beijing’s Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations", China Brief, 5(11) (2005)
  6. Hearing: Military Construction, VA Subcommittee- Pacific Command, , Hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriation, House of the Representatives, ~ (2010)
  7. "Hearing before the Full Committee of the COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 111TH CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION", ~ (2009)
  8. How Do You Solve A Problem Like Korea? New Archive Document Collection Sheds Light on Nixon’s Frustrating Search for Military Options, , ~, pp.National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 322 (2010)
  9. Office of Asian Pacific and Latin American Analysis, "CIA, Intelligence Report: Exploring the Implications of Alternative North Korean Endgames: Results from a Discussion Panel on Continuing Coexistence Between North and South Korea", ~ (1998)
  10. Office of the Secretary Defense, "Annual Report to Congress 2010 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China" (2010), Department of Defense
  11. [URL]
  13. "National Defense Program Guidelines, FY 2005-, Reference 8 and Reference 9", ~ (2008)
  14. Roy Kamphausen, "Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other than Taiwan" (2009), Strategy Studies Institute
  15. Samuel S. Kim, "Sino-North Korean Relations in the Post-Cold War World. in: 󰡔North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival" (2006), M.E. Sharpe
  16. State Department Briefing Memorandum, "Clinton-Hashimoto Meeting", ~ (1996)
  17. Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Brief, "State Department", Countdown to Starvation, ~ (1998)
  18. State Department Memorandum, "Korean Peninsula Issues", ~ (1996)
  19. "Priority Issues: Key Analytical Challenges, A Briefing Book produced and prepared by a team of Directorate of Intelligence", ~ (1997)
  20. State Department, "Talking Points in re situation in North Korea", ~ (1996)
  21. Japan’s Revised Threat Perceptions and Military Up-Gradation Plans: An Analysis, "Subbash Kapila", South Asia Analysis Group, ~, pp.Paper No. 1204 (2004)
  22. Wang Jisi, "Patience and Resolve", The American Interest (2010)
  23. China’s Changing Policy on Peacekeeping Operations, "Yin He", Institute for Security and Development Policy, ~ (2007)
  24. 문광건, "코소보사태와 인도주의전쟁", ~
  25. [URL]
  26. 이무철, "북한 인권문제와 ‘인도적 개입’ - 주요 쟁점과 비판적 평가 -", 통일문제연구, 22(1), pp.153~189 (2010), 평화문제연구소
  27. 조성렬, "日 ‘신방위대강’, 무엇을 노리나, 신동아, 2005년 2월호", 172~186 (2005)
  28. , 서울파이낸스, 2010년 8월 15일, , 2010
  29. "‘작계 5027’ 北에 넘어갔다, 조선일보, 2010년 6월 5일", ~ (2010)
  30. "월러드 美 태평양사령관, ‘한국 MD 능력 확보’, 한국일보, 2010년 3월 25일", ~ (2010)
  31. "미국에서 보는 북한 리스크, 매일경제, 2010년 3월 3일", ~ (2010)
  32. "중국 ‘북 급변사태 좌시 못해’, 내일신문, 2010년 2월 24일", ~ (2010)
  33. "中, 절대 북한 불안하도록 하지 않을 것, 연합뉴스, 2010년 2월 23일", ~ (2010)
  34. "사설: 한반도 유사시 조기대응 빈틈 없어야, 중앙일보, 2010년 2월 6일", ~ (2010)
  35. "한반도 급변사태 등 대비..美, 3개 시나리오 운용 중, 동아일보, 2010년 2월 6일", ~ (2010)
  36. "사설: 美 국방 ‘한반도 비상시 미군 신속하게 증파 못할 것’, 조선일보, 2010년 2월 4일", ~ (2010)
  37. "북한정변 땐 한국이 주도적 역할...WMD 유출 땐 미국이 대응키로, 중앙일보, 2009년 11월 2일", ~ (2009)
  38. "中, 북한붕괴에 대비하자는 美 제안에 왜 반발하나 ‘美와 논의 시작하는 순간 中北관계 끝장, 조선일보, 2009년 8월 4일", ~ (2009)
  39. "美 ‘北 급변 논의’ 봇물... 中에 공동대책 타진까지, 조선일보, 2009년 8월 3일", ~ (2009)
  40. "방어중심 새 작전계획 곧 수립, 세계일보, 2007년 2월 25일", ~ (2007)
  41. "샤프, ‘北불안정 사태 대비책 완비, 한국경제, 2009년 2월 9일", ~ (2009)
  42. "샤프, ‘北핵무기 통제력사실 대책마련, 중앙일보, 2009년 2월 9일", ~ (2009)
  43. Jung Sung-ki, "Allies Ready to Remove N. Korean Nukes", Korea Times (2010)
  44. "U.S. To Remove N. Korean WMDs in Contingency, Defense News, November 8, 2009", ~ (2009)
  45. Charles Hutzler, "China slow to discuss North Korea with US", Boston Globe (2009)
  46. Jay Solomon, "Beijing Spurns U.S. Effort to Prepare In Event of Korean Leader’s Demise", The Wall Street Journal (2008)
  47. Japan and US Working on North Korea Emergency Plan, , AFP, ~ (2007)
  48. "Transcript of Vice Adm. Jonathan Greenert’s interview with Stars and Stripes", Stars and Stripes (2005)
  49. "US, Japan Have Operational Plan for N.K. Crisis", Asahi Shimbun (2004)
  50. 張啓運, "“朝鮮崩潰論”可以休矣", 環球時報 (2009)
  51. "專家稱應警惕美國以朝鮮崩潰論離間中朝關係", 環球時報 (2009)
  52. "美國三邀中國制定“朝鮮政權崩潰應對計劃”", 環球時報 (2009)
  53. "朱鎽: 中國不會單獨介入朝鮮突發事件", 星島環球网 (2009)
  54. [URL]
  55. "2006年 10月 10日 外交部發言人劉建超在例行記者會上答記者問", ~ (2006)
  56. "2010年 6月 24日 外交部發言人秦剛在例行記者會上答記者問", ~ (2010)
  57. "2006年 9月 5日 外交部發言人秦剛在例行記者會上答記者問", ~ (2006)
  58. "2003年 7月 15日 外交部發言人在記者招待會上答記者問", ~ (2003)
  59. [URL]
  60. [URL]

관련 논문AI추천

South Korea’s Strategy for North Korean Contingency : Beyond Interventions of China and the United States박창희신아시아연구소 · 신아세아2011 · 제18권 제3호북한의 체제붕괴 위기시 중국의 군사개입 가능성강장석신아시아연구소 · 신아세아2006 · 제13권 제3호China-U.S. Relations and the Security of the Korean Peninsula방수옥, Xin Hua한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2013 · 제25권 제3호중국의 세계금융위기 인식과 대북정책: 지속과 변화전병곤중국학연구회 · 중국학연구2009 · 제50호중․미관계 변화와 중국의 대북정책:후진타오시기를 중심으로신상진아태지역연구센터 · 중소연구2017 · 제41권 제2호China’s Role and Perception of a Unified Korea김장호, 전병곤한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2013 · 제25권 제3호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (29건)

『樂章集』 版本考류기수pp. 3-18經籍에 나타난 『詩經』의 인문학적 요소의 현대적 의미 고찰문승용pp. 19-35중국 현대시와 음악의 상관성 연구박남용pp. 37-61중국문학 정보디자인과 모바일 활용 방법론 연구박정원pp. 63-90唐詩 중에 나타난 꽃 묘사양상과 미학적 특징배다니엘pp. 91-114
원문 보기