인천공항 항공화물 주요품목 분석: 중력모형을 중심으로
Analysis of Major Commodities of Air Cargo at Incheon International Airport: Focused on Gravity Model
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study aims to analyze empirically the transport patterns and correlations of major import and export commodities in air cargo. From 2000 to 2019, we analyzed air cargo panel data by export and import, amount and weight for four major commodities, electronics, machinery, chemical industry, and agricultural products for the top 126 countries. The gravity model was adopted and we analyzed it using explanatory variables GDP, per capita GDP, distance between capitals, land area of trading partners, landlocked countries, FTA agreements, and Cargo Open Skies agreements(COSA). The results of the analysis model show that GDP is significant for household goods, steel and metal products, and machinery and electronic products. GDP per capita shows valid results for all items, and FTA shows limited meaningful results in agricultural and fishery products, minerals, plastics, rubber and leather products, textiles, steel and metal products, and machinery and electronic products. The Cargo Open Skies agreements also shows valid only for agricultural and fishery products and household goods. It was found that the frequency of the major factors of air freight was affected in order of GDP per capita, FTA, GDP, and COSA.
Abstract
This study aims to analyze empirically the transport patterns and correlations of major import and export commodities in air cargo. From 2000 to 2019, we analyzed air cargo panel data by export and import, amount and weight for four major commodities, electronics, machinery, chemical industry, and agricultural products for the top 126 countries. The gravity model was adopted and we analyzed it using explanatory variables GDP, per capita GDP, distance between capitals, land area of trading partners, landlocked countries, FTA agreements, and Cargo Open Skies agreements(COSA). The results of the analysis model show that GDP is significant for household goods, steel and metal products, and machinery and electronic products. GDP per capita shows valid results for all items, and FTA shows limited meaningful results in agricultural and fishery products, minerals, plastics, rubber and leather products, textiles, steel and metal products, and machinery and electronic products. The Cargo Open Skies agreements also shows valid only for agricultural and fishery products and household goods. It was found that the frequency of the major factors of air freight was affected in order of GDP per capita, FTA, GDP, and COSA.
참고문헌 (42)
- 강재석, "항공자유화 협정이 국제여객운송에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석", 한국항공경영학회지, 17(5), pp.81~98 (2019), 한국항공경영학회[DOI]
- "항공운송시장 동향 제55호" (2017), 국토교통부[URL]
- 김벽진, "SNA를 이용한 국제 항공화물의 네트워크 구조 분석", 로지스틱스연구, 25(3), pp.59~82 (2017), 한국로지스틱스학회[DOI]
- 김연준, "수요측면을 고려한 Factor Content of Trade 모델에 관한 연구 -항공, 중력모델을 중심으로-", 한국항공경영학회지, 13(1), pp.25~44 (2015), 한국항공경영학회
- 김상열, "국제교역환경변화에 따른 항공화물 교역 패턴 변화 분석", 한국국제경영관리학회 학술발표대회 논문집, 5, pp.489~500 (2015)
- 민인식, "STATA 페널데이터 분석" (2012), 지필미디어
- 민인식, "고급 페널데이터 분석" (2019), 지필미디어
- 백남진, "항공물류운송업무론" (2016), 두남
- "전세계 FTA 체결 현황" (2021), 산업통상자원부[URL]
- 오성열, "아시아 주요국가의 공항네트워크 구조 및 집중도 분석", 한국항공경영학회지, 8(2), pp.43~58 (2010), 한국항공경영학회
- 윤지희, "지역무역협정(Regional trade agreement, RTA)에 따른 무역구조변화 분석: Chow test를 이용한EU, ASEAN의 무역구조변화 실증분석", 통계청 대학원논문대회 우수 논문집, 4, pp.110~153 (2008)
- 윤진나, "중력모형(Gravity model)에 기초한한국의 교역패턴 및 지역경제권의 영향", 대외경제정책연구, 4(2), pp.3~41 (2000)
- 이시영, "타지키스탄의 교통인프라 개발 계획과 발전전망", 대외경제정책연구원 지역경제포커스, 6(8), pp.1~10 (2012)
- 임재환, "한국과 항공무역 주요국간 수출입 패턴 분석", 한국항공경영학회지, 17(6), pp.75~90 (2019), 한국항공경영학회[DOI]
- 조건식, "포지셔닝 분석을 이용한 인천국제공항 발전방향에 관한 연구: 항공화물을 중심으로", 로지스틱스연구, 22(3), pp.35~50 (2014), 한국로지스틱스학회[DOI]
- 최봉호, "중력모형을 이용한 한국의 교역패턴 및 지역경제통합체의효과 분석; 패널자료를 이용한 분석", 산업경제연구, 18(3), pp.1035~1052 (2005), 한국산업경제학회
- 최성구, "세계 주요 공항의 효율성과 영향력 측정에 관한 연구: DEA와 사회 네트워크 분석을 이용하여", 로지스틱스연구, 22(1), pp.29~42 (2014), 한국로지스틱스학회[DOI]
- "수출입무역통계" (2020), 한국무역협회[URL]
- "2020 포켓 항공현황" (2020), 한국항공협회[URL]
- 함시창, "중력모형(Gravity model)을 통한 세계 경제통합화 경향 분석", 경제학연구, 43(4), pp.4151~4181 (1996)
- Anderson, J. E., "A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation", The American Economic Review, 69, pp.106~116 (1979)
- Bastida, C., "Freight Generation Models: Comparative Analysis of Regression Models and Multiple Classification Analysis", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2091, pp.51~61 (2009)
- Is regionalism simply diversion? Evidence from the evolution of the EC and EFTA, "Bayoumi, T.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, 5283 (1995)
- Boeing, "World Air Cargo Forecast 2018-2037", ~ (2018)
- Breusch, T. S., "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics", The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), pp.239~253 (1980)
- The gravity equation in international trade: An explanation, "Chaney, T.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, 19285 (2013)
- "GeoDist" (2020)[URL]
- "The World Factbook" (2020)[URL]
- Cristea, A. D., "Open skies over the Middle East", The World Economy, 38(11), pp.1650~1681 (2015)
- Doganis, R. C., "Flying Off Course IV: Airline Economics and Marketing" (2010), Routledge
- Endo, N., "International trade in air transport service : Penetration of foreign airlines into Japan under the bilateral aviation policies of the US and Japan", Air Transportation Management, 13, pp.285~292 (2007)
- Filippini, C., "The determinants of East Asian trade flows : a gravity equation approach", Journal of Asian Economics, 14, pp.695~711 (2003)
- Trade and growth in East Asian countries: Cause and effect?, "Frankel, J. A.", NBER, 9~15, pp.NBER Working Paper, 5732 (1996)
- Geloso Grosso, M. G., "Air Cargo Transport in APEC : Regulation and effects on merchandise trade", Journal of Asian Economics, 22(3), pp.203~212 (2011)
- Hausman, J. A., "Specification Tests in Econometrics", Econometrica, 46, pp.1251~1272 (1978)
- Hwang, C. C., "Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes : am empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport", Journal of Transport Geography, 19(4), pp.738~744 (2011)
- Linnemann, H., "Econometric study of international trade flows" (1966), Morth-Holland
- McCallum, J., "National Boarders Matter:Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns", American Economic Review, 85(3), pp.615~623 (1995)
- Matsumoto, H., "International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities", Transportation Research Part E : Logistics and Transportation Review, 43(3), pp.269~282 (2007)
- Morrell, P. S., "Moving Boxes by Air:The Economics of International Air Cargo" (2019), Routledge
- Tinbergen, J., "Saping the world economy:Suggestions for an international trade policy" (1962), The 20th Century Fund
- "National Account Data" (2020)[URL]
