우즈베키스탄 인플레이션 연구: 중앙은행의 독립성을 중심으로
The Study on the Inflation in Uzbekistan: Focused on the Independence of the Central Bank
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우즈베키스탄은 시장경제로 전환하고 있는 중앙아시아 국가들 중 비교적 빠른 경제성장을 보여주고 있다. 이러한 경제성장은 우즈베키스탄의 수수께끼라고 불릴 정도로 인상적이다. 그러나이론적으로 경제성장과 인플레이션은 역의 상관관계가 있다고 알려져 있을 뿐만 아니라 이행기경제에서 강력한 중앙정부의 재정정책 아래 중앙은행의 독립성이 보장되지 않기 때문에 결국 인플레이션이 유발될 수밖에 없음이 주장되고 있다. 이러한 이론적 주장을 배경으로 본 논문에서는 먼저 우즈베키스탄 중앙은행의 독립성을 그릴리, 마쉬안다로 그리고 타벨리니가 개발한 GMT 지수를 중심으로 정치적 독립성과 경제적 독립성으로 나누어 분석했다. 정치적 독립성은 비교적 높으나 경제적 독립성은 매우 낮게 나타났다. 이러한 매우 낮은 경제적 독립성은 중앙은행의 정책적 변수 분석에서도 동일하게 확인되고있다. 즉 중앙은행의 지불준비율정책, 공개시장조작정책, 재할인율정책 분석에서도 우즈베키스탄의 인플레이션율과 이들 정책들 간의 유의적 인과관계가 약하다는 것으로 나타나고 있다.
Abstract
The economic growth of Uzbekistan is relatively very fast among the transition economies in Central Asia. These economic growth rate is sometimes called as ‘the Uzbek's economic puzzle.’ But theoretically speaking, the relationship between the economic growth and the inflation was known as negative and the inflation is, it is argued, inevitable since the independence of the Central Bank is not guaranteed under the fiscal policy of the strong central government in the transition economies. Based on these theoretical arguments, the degree of the independence of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan was analyzed into both the political independence and the economic independence using GMT index developed by V. Grilli, D. Masciandaro and G. Tabellini. It is found that the political independence is relatively high but the economic independence is very low. The very low economic independence of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan is equally confirmed in the analysis of the policy variables of the Central Bank. That is, it was analyzed that the significant relation between the inflation and the policy variables such as the reserve requirement ratio, the open market operation policy and the refinancing rate is low.
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