우즈베키스탄의 ‘경제성장 역설’에 대한 고찰: 초기조건, 체제전환전략, 경제실적
Paradox of Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: Initial Conditions, Transition Strategy, and Economic Performance
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본 논문은 우즈베키스탄의 초기조건과 체제전환전략, 그리고 경제정책모델의 성격과 그 적용을 분석함으로써 독립 이래 우즈베키스탄이 달성한 이례적인 경제실적의 배경과 요인을 해명하는 것을 주된 목적으로 한다. 체제전환 초기에 우즈벡 당국의 주된 관심은 급격한 생산축소의 방지와 강력한 사회적 보호 그리고 공업부문의 증강을 통한 경제의 현대화에 두어졌다. 어떤 면에서 보면, 이러한 복합적인 목표가 개혁전략 선택에 영향을 미쳤다고 볼 수 있다. 우즈벡 당국은 시장개혁에 대한 충실한 이행을 선언하면서도 경제의 중점육성부문에 대한 확고한 통제를 유지했다. 우즈베키스탄은 경제체제전환에 대한 점진주의 접근방법을 선택함으로써 체제전환 초기에 산출의 극적인 하락을 막을 수 있었다. 경제의 중앙집권화된 관리를 비롯하여 우즈베키스탄의 사회경제적 조건, 경제 구조, 풍부한 천연자원 부존, 수출수입(收入)의 획득 가능성과 같은 여러 가지 요인이 개혁전략의 선택뿐만 아니라 상대적으로 강력한 경제 회복세를 설명한다. 이 시기에 채택된 정책은 우즈베키스탄이 2001년까지 체제전환 이전의 산출수준을 회복하는 데 도움을 주었으며, 석유, 천연가스, 밀을 비롯한 대다수 소비재의 자급자족을 가능하게 했다. 정부지출의 성격과 나아가 이들 정책의 효율성은 의심받을 수 있지만, 교육과 의료에 상대적으로 높은 수준의 지출을 유지했다는 점에서 긍정적인 평가를 받을 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper analyses initial conditions and transition strategy, and nature and application of the economic policy model, and mainly aims to make clear the background and factors of relatively successful economic performance of Uzbekistan since independence. The main concern of the Uzbek authorities during the early period of transition was the prevention of dramatic output loss, strong social protection and modernization of the economy through strengthening the industrial sector. In a way, these multiple objectives influenced the authorities’ choice of reform strategy. While announcing their commitment to market reforms, they had to keep firm control over priority sectors of the economy. By choosing a gradualist approach to economic transition, Uzbekistan was able to prevent drastic decline of output during the early period of transition. Several factors, such as socio-economic conditions, the structure of the economy, rich natural resource endowment, availability of export revenues and more importantly centralized management of the economy, explain not only the choice of reform strategy but also the relative restoring power of the economy in Uzbekistan. The policies adopted during this period helped the country to achieve its pre-transition output level by 2001 and guaranteed self-sufficiency in oil, natural gas, wheat and a number of consumption goods. The authorities also deserve some credit for maintaining the comparatively high level of expenditure on education and health care, although the quality of spending and thus the efficiency of these policies might be questioned.
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