시장경제체제로의 전환과정에서 나타난 러시아에서의 자본도피

Abstract

Capital flight is an abnormal flow of funds whose holder seeks safe havens from financial uncertainty and taxation or seeks to launder proceeds from illegal activities. The serious problems of capital flight are well known. The costs of capital flight include a loss of potential resources to financial real investment, productive capacity, tax base, and control over monetary aggregates. This paper investigates the causes of capital flight from Russia, estimates the scale of capital flight, and analyses the negative effect of capital flight on russian economic development. The root causes of capital flight from Russia include political uncertainty, economic instability, slow progress of reforms, and institutional weaknesses, particularly corruption and absence of a resonable, sound tax system. In this paper has been estimated the size of capital flight in 1992-2004 using a modified version of Cuddington's method and raising the Russian Federation balance of payments data. Capital flight from Russia between 1992 and 2004 has totaled $315.5 billion or $24.3 billion per year. In 1996 capital flight skyrocketed to $33.1 billion and to $35.5 billion in 1997. Russian Capital flight is a longstanding problem with very negative influences. It deprives the Russian economy of critical financial resources that could be used for investment, tax revenues, and restructuring pensions and other social security problems. Capital flight negatively affects the current account balance and also may facilitate illegal activities. More importantly, capital flight indicates a lack of confidence by Russian and foreign investors and residents in the Russian ruble, in the Russian financial system, and more generally in the Russian economy.