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동아시아에 있어서 민주주의의 공간적 확산효과 측정:분석모형의 구축과 사례분석

Measuring Spatial Diffusion Effects of Democracy in East Asia:Building an Analytic Model and Explaining Cases

안승국
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2005.06|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제21권 제2호|pp. 65-91

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주제분류정치외교학

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Abstract

This paper presents research that reveals the relationship between temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in East Asia since the mid 1980s. Much of the existing research neglected diffusion factors implicitly assuming that the major independent variables determining democratization as a dependent variable are internal ones. But most recently the bulk of empirical research has included diffusion factors. Thus empirical research began to accept the possibility that some factors may diffuse across national border. All the empirical research that has addressed diffusion effects has confirmed the significance of external influences of one or another. In this context, this paper provides consistent evidences of temporal cascading of democratic trends as well as spatial association of democracy. The analysis uses an exploratory approach to understand regional trends in democratization. This paper first considers some explanations for why democratization process should be influenced by regional contexts and events in neighboring countries. This analysis then shows empirically that distribution of democracy cluster spatially. This analysis also demonstrates that spatial clustering in democracy can not be accounted for by differences in domestic factors. This suggests that the regional contexts and neighboring effects play an important part in democratization. This paper addresses the existence of diffusion effects in regard to changes in degree of freedom based on yearly Freedom House data. Thus this paper bears theoretical and methodological implications to democratic studies in that it provides some empirical analysis explicitly aimed at uncovering diffusion effects.

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