한국의 대북한 정치적 영향력 평가: 사례비교와 원인분석

Abstract

South Korea's political influence over North Korea is defined as one of North Korea's adopting South Korea's intention to some degree not by violence or compulsion but by negotiation or persuasion even if both have different preferences over political matters. According to this definition, South Korea's political influence over North Korea has increased in proportion to expansion of both side's interaction after 6․15 inter-Korean summit. The most exemplary case is the consecutive successes of reopening interrupted ministerial talks three times after the summit. Before the summit, fertilizer-talks in Beijing were broken off each time. North Korea's expressing its regret of the Yellow Sea battle in 2002 can be also an exemplary case comparing its vigorous reaction over the Yellow Sea battle in 1999. Deepening North's economic dependence on South, above all, resulted in increasement of South's political influence over North. Because North's disadvantage and threat of sanction were incremented if it would deny South's demand. Another factor of this increasement is both side's common policy reorientation of improving inter-Korean relations, rapprochement, and cooperation after the summit. In addition to these factors, South's consistent attitudes over North based on principle and confidence also worked out North's compromise.