본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

단극의 환상과 현실: 탈냉전기 미국 대전략의 진화

Reality and Illusion: The Contours of American Grand Strategy after the Cold War

이혜정
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2020.03|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제36권 제1호|pp. 37-79|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2020.36.1.002

0

조회

0

다운로드

8

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

American Hegemony미국 패권대전략Grand StrategyAmerican Exceptionalism신자유주의 지구화이익조화자제-감축 전략The Harmony of InterestsThe Strategy of Restraint-Retrenchment
주제분류정치외교학

초록

이 글은 미국의 대전략을 미국과 세계의 관계에 대한 담론체계로 보고 카의 이익조화 개념을 기준으로, 탈냉전기 미국 대전략의 진화를 추적한다. 1990년대에는 미국 패권이 동맹체계와 신자유주의 지구화를 중심으로 전 지구적으로 확장되었고, 예외적인 힘과 이념, 제도를 지닌 미국의 패권은 미국의 국익은 물론 국제사회의 이익을 내장하고 있다는 미국 패권 예외주의가 대전략 담론을 지배했다. 이라크 전쟁과 대침체 이후에는 부시 정부의 제국적, 군사적 일방주의가 오바마 정부의 자유주의 패권으로 전환되었고, 자제-감축론이 전략적 대안으로 자리매김했다. 대침체의 정치적 후폭풍으로 트럼프가 집권한 이후에는 그의 ‘미국 우선주의’가 패권의 대내외적 이익조화를 모두 부정하면서, 미국 패권 예외주의는 약화되고 자제-감축론의 위상은 높아졌다.

Abstract

Premised upon that American grand strategy is basically a discourse on America’s relationship with the world and guided by E. H. Carr’s concept of the harmony of interests, this paper traces the evolution of American grand strategy after the Cold War. The archetypical logic of post-Cold War American grand strategy has been a natural harmony of interests among America’s global hegemony, American national interests, and the interests of international society, and which has been legitimized by America’s exceptional power, ideology and institutions. The Iraq War, the Great Recession and Trump’s ‘America First’ have undermined American hegemony exceptionalim. The strategy of liberal hegemony-primacy is now challenged by the strategy of restraint-retrenchment.

참고문헌 (155)

  1. 이혜정, "미국 세기의 논리 : 이차대전과 미국의 ‘대영역’", 한국정치학회보, 35(1), pp.365~380 (2001)
  2. 이혜정, "냉전 이후 미국 패권" (2017), 한울아카데미
  3. 이혜정, "한반도 평화체제 구축과 한미관계", pp.111~164 (2018), 통일연구원
  4. 이혜정, "미중 전략적 경쟁: 무엇이 문제이고 어떻게 풀어야 하나", pp.255~299 (2020), 페이퍼로드
  5. 이혜정, "미국 패권은 예외적인가?: 아이켄베리의 자유주의 국제질서 이론 비판", 한국과 국제정치, 34(4), pp.1~31 (2018), 극동문제연구소[DOI]
  6. "The Truth About the Liberal Order: Why It Didn’t Make the Modern World" (2018)[URL]
  7. Altman, Roger C., "The Great Crash, 2008 : A Geopolitical Setback for the West", Foreign Affairs, 88(1), pp.2~14 (2009)
  8. "The Battle Inside the Political Parties for the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy" (2018)[URL]
  9. Azari, Julia, "It’s the Institutions, Stupid : The Real Roots of America’s Political Crisis", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.52~61 (2019)
  10. Bacevich, Andrew, "The Limits of Power : The End of American Exceptionalism" (2009), Metropolitan Books
  11. Bacevich, Andrew, "The Revisionist Imperative : Rethinking Twentieth Century Wars", The Journal of Military History, 76(2), pp.333~342 (2012)
  12. Bacevich, Andrew, "Ending Endless War : A Pragmatic Military Strategy", Foreign Affairs, 95(5), pp.36~44 (2016)
  13. Betts, Richard K., "The Grandiosity of Grand Strategy", The Washington Quarterly, 42(4), pp.7~22 (2019)
  14. Birdsall, Nancy, "The Post-Washington Consensus : Development after the Crisis", Foreign Affairs, 90(2), pp.45~53 (2011)
  15. Brands, Hal, "Should America Retrench? The Battle Over Offshore Balancing", Foreign Affairs, 95(6), pp.164~171 (2016)
  16. Bremmer, Ian, "Every Nation for Itself : Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World" (2012), Portfolio
  17. Brooks, Stephen G., "Don’t Come Home, America : The Case Against Retrenchment", International Security, 37(3), pp.7~51 (2012)
  18. Brooks, Stephen G., "Lean Forward : In Defense of American Engagement", Foreign Affairs, 92(1), pp.130~142 (2013)
  19. Brown, Michael E., "Primacy and Its Discontents: American Power and International Stability" (2008), The MIT Press
  20. Buchanan, Patrick, "America First - and Second, and Third", The National Interest, (19), pp.77~82 (1990)
  21. Campbell, Kurt M., "Competition Without Catastrophe : How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China", Foreign Affairs, 98(5), pp.96~111 (2019)
  22. Carpenter, Ted Glen, "A Search for Enemies : America’s Alliances After the Cold War" (1992), Cato Institute
  23. Carpenter, Ted Glen, "Delusions of Grandeur : The United Nations and Global Intervention" (1997), Cato Institute
  24. Carr, E. H, "Nationalism and After" (1945), Macmillan
  25. Carr, E. H, "The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919-1939 : An Introduction to the Study of International Relations" (1964), Macmillan
  26. Colgan, Jeff D., "Three Visions of International Order", The Washington Quarterly, 42(2), pp.85~98 (2019)
  27. Colgan, Jeff D., "The Liberal Order Is Rigged : Fix It Now or Watch It Wither", Foreign Affairs, 96(3), pp.36~44 (2017)
  28. Cumings, Bruce, "The End of History or the Return of Liberal Crisis?", Current History, 98(3), pp.9~16 (1999)
  29. Cumings, Bruce, "The American Way of Going to War : Mexico(1846)to Iraq(2003)", Orbis, 51(2), pp.195~215 (2007)
  30. Deudney, Daniel, "After the Long War", Foreign Policy, (94), pp.21~35 (1994)
  31. Deudney, Daniel, "The Nature and Sources of Liberal International Order", Review of International Studies, 25(2), pp.179~196 (1999)
  32. Diamond, Larry, "Democracy Demotion : How the Freedom Agenda Fell Apart", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.17~25 (2019)
  33. Dumbrell, John, "Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy: Candidates, and Global Politics from FDR to Bill Clinton", pp.317~335 (2017), University Press of Kentucky
  34. Gardner, Lloyd C., "Iraq and the Lessons of Vietnam: Or, How Not to Learn from the Past" (2007), The New Press
  35. Gilpin, Robert, "No One Loves a Political Realist", Security Studies, 5(3), pp.3~26 (1996)
  36. Gilpin, Robert, "The Challenge of Global Capitalism : The World Economy in the 21st Century" (2000), Princeton University Press
  37. Gholz, Eugene, "Come Home, America : The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation", International Security, 21(4), pp.5~48 (1997)
  38. Go, Julian, "Patterns of Empire : The British and American Empires, 1688 to the Present" (2011), Cambridge University Press
  39. Ferguson, Niall, "Colossus : The Rise and Fall of the American Empire" (2005), Penguin
  40. Ferguson, Niall, "Complexity and Collapse : Empires on the Edge of Chaos", Foreign Affairs, 89(2), pp.18~32 (2010)
  41. Friedman, Thomas, "That Used To Be US : How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back" (2012), Picador
  42. Fukuyama, Francis, "The End of History?", The National Interest, (16), pp.3~18 (1989)
  43. Fukuyama, Francis, "Second Thoughts: The Last Man in a Bottle", The National Interest, (56), pp.16~33 (1999)
  44. Fukuyama, Francis, "The Neoconservative Moment", The National Interest, (75), pp.57~68 (2004)
  45. Fukuyama, Francis, "America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power and the Neoconservative Legacy" (2006), Yale University Press
  46. Fukuyama, Francis, "The Future of History: Can Liberal Democracy Survive the Decline of the Middle Class?", Foreign Affairs, 91(1), pp.53~61 (2012)
  47. Fukuyama, Francis, "The Decay of American Political Institutions", The American Interest, 9(3), pp.7~19 (2014)
  48. Fukuyama, Francis, "American Political Decay or Renewal? The Meaning of the 2016Election", Foreign Affairs, 95(4), pp.58~68 (2016)
  49. Haass, Richard. N., "The Unraveling : How to Respond to a Disordered World", Foreign Affairs, 93(6), pp.70~79 (2014)
  50. Haass, Richard. N., "How a World Order Ends : And What Comes in Its Wake", Foreign Affairs, 98(1), pp.22~30 (2019)
  51. Hacker, Jacob S., "The Republican Devolution : Partisanship and the Decline of American Governance", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.42~51 (2019)
  52. Helleiner, Eric, "The Life and Times of Embedded Liberalism : Legacies and Innovations Since Bretton Woods", Review of International Political Economy, 26(6), pp.1112~1135 (2019)
  53. Hopkins, A. G., "Capitalism, Nationalism and the New American Empire", The Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History, 35(1), pp.95~117 (2007)
  54. Hopkins, A. G., "American Empire : A Global History" (2018), Princeton University Press
  55. Huntington, Samuel P., "The West : Unique, Not Universal", Foreign Affairs, 75(6), pp.28~46 (1996)
  56. Huntington, Samuel P., "The Erosion of American National Interests", Foreign Affairs, 76(5), pp.28~49 (1997)
  57. Huntington, Samuel P., "The Lonely Superpower", Foreign Affairs, 78(2), pp.35~49 (1999)
  58. Huntington, Samuel P., "Dead Soul: The Denationalization of the American Elites", The National Interest, (75), pp.5~18 (2004)
  59. Ikenberry, G. John, "Salvaging the G-7", Foreign Affairs, 72(2), pp.132~139 (1993)
  60. Ikenberry, G. John, "The Myth of Post-Cold War Chaos", Foreign Affairs, 75(3), pp.79~91 (1996)
  61. Ikenberry, G. John, "Constitutional Politics in International Relations", European Journal of International Relations, 4(2), pp.147~177 (1998)
  62. Ikenberry, G. John, "Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order", International Security, 23(3), pp.43~78 (1999)
  63. Ikenberry, G. John, "Don’t Panic: How Secure Is Globalization’s Future?", Foreign Affairs, 79(3), pp.145~151 (2000)
  64. Ikenberry, G. John, "After Victory : Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars" (2000), Princeton University Press
  65. Ikenberry, G. John, "America’s Imperial Ambition", Foreign Affairs, 81(5), pp.44~60 (2002)
  66. Ikenberry, G. John, "The End of the Neo-Conservative Moment", Survival, 46(1), pp.7~22 (2004)
  67. Ikenberry, G. John, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West", Foreign Affairs, 87(1), pp.23~37 (2008)
  68. Ikenberry, G. John, "Liberal Internationalism 3. 0 : America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order", Perspectives on Politics, 7(1), pp.71~87 (2009)
  69. Ikenberry, G. John, "The Illusion of Geopolitics : The Enduring Power of the Liberal Order", Foreign Affairs, 93(3), pp.80~90 (2014)
  70. Ikenberry, G. John, "The West : Precious, not Unique : Civilizations Make for a Poor Paradigm", Foreign Affairs, 76(2), pp.162~165 (1997)
  71. Joffe, Josef, "The Default Power : The False Prophecy of America’s Decline", Foreign Affairs, 88(5), pp.21~35 (2009)
  72. Kapstein, Ethan B., "Workers and the World Economy : Breaking the Postwar Bargain", Foreign Affairs, 75(3), pp.16~37 (1996)
  73. Kennedy, Paul, "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" (1987), Random House
  74. Kennedy, Paul, "The Next American Century?", World Policy Journal, 16(1), pp.52~58 (1999)
  75. Kennedy, Paul, "The Eagle Has Landed", Financial Times, ~ (2002)
  76. Kennedy, Paul, "American Power is on the Wane", The Wall Street Journal, ~ (2009)
  77. Keohane, Robert O., "Hegemony and After : Knowns and Unknowns in the Debate Over Decline", Foreign Affairs, 91(4), pp.114~118 (2012)
  78. Krauthammer, Charles, "The Unipolar Moment", Foreign Affairs, 70(1), pp.23~33 (1991)
  79. Krauthammer, Charles, "The Unipolar Moment Revisited", The National Interest, (70), pp.5~17 (2003)
  80. Krauthammer, Charles, "In Defense of Democratic Realism", The National Interest, (77), pp.15~25 (2004)
  81. Krebs, Ronald R., "How Dominant Narratives Rise and Fall : Military Conflict, Politics and the Cold War Consensus", International Organization, 69(4), pp.809~845 (2015)
  82. Kristol, William, "Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy", Foreign Affairs, 75(4), pp.18~32 (1996)
  83. Krugman, Paul, "Workers and Economists: The Global Economy Has Left Keynes in Its Train", Foreign Affairs, 75(4), pp.164~181 (1996)
  84. Kupchan, Charles, "Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States", International Security, 32(2), pp.7~44 (2007)
  85. Kupchan, Charles, "Grand Strategy for a Divided America", Foreign Affairs, 86(4), pp.71~84 (2007)
  86. Kupchan, Charles, "The Illusion of Liberal Internationalism’s Revival", International Security, 35(1), pp.95~109 (2010)
  87. Kurth, James, "A Tale of Four Crises; The Politics of Great Depressions and Recessions", Orbis, 55(3), pp.500~523 (2011)
  88. Kurth, James, "The American Way of Empire : How America Won a World--But Lost Her Way" (2019), Washington Books
  89. Layne, Christopher, "The Unipolar Illusion : Why New Great Powers Will Rise", International Security, 17(4), pp.5~51 (1993)
  90. Layne, Christopher, "From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing : America’s Future Grand Strategy", International Security, 22(1), pp.86~124 (1997)
  91. Layne, Christopher, "The Unipolar Illusion Revisited : The Coming End of the United States' Unipolar Moment", International Security, 31(2), pp.7~41 (2006)
  92. Layne, Christopher, "This Time It’s Real : The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana", International Studies Quarterly, 56(1), pp.203~213 (2012)
  93. Leach, James A., "A Republican Looks at Foreign Policy", Foreign Affairs, 71(3), pp.17~31 (1992)
  94. LeVien, Douglas A., "America’s Prescient Dissenters: Senator J. William Fulbright and Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich’s Principled Dissent of US Policy in Vietnam and Iraq and Their Enduring Perspectives", Journal of Military Ethics, 16(3-4), pp.173~190 (2017)
  95. Lissner, Rebecca Friedman, "The Day after Trump:American Strategy for a New International Order", The Washington Quarterly, 41(4), pp.7~25 (2018)
  96. Mandelbaum, Michael, "Mission Failure : America and the World in the Post-Cold War Era" (2016), Oxford University Press
  97. Mann, Michael, "The Dark Side of Democracy : Explaining Ethnic Cleansing" (2004), Cambridge University Press
  98. Mann, Michael, "Incoherent Empire" (2005), Verso
  99. McDougall, Walter A., "Can the United States Do Grand Strategy?", Orbis, 54(2), pp.165~184 (2010)
  100. Mearsheimer, John J., "Back to the Future : Instability in Europe After the Cold War", International Security, 15(1), pp.5~56 (1990)
  101. Mearsheimer, John J., "America Unhinged", The National Interest, (129), pp.9~30 (2014)
  102. Mearsheimer, John J., "An Unnecessary War", Foreign Policy, (134), pp.50~59 (2003)
  103. Mearsheimer, John J., "The Case for Offshore Balancing : A Superior U. S. Grand Strategy", Foreign Affairs, 95(4), pp.70~83 (2016)
  104. Nye, Joseph S., "Bound to Lead : The Changing Nature of American Power" (1990), Basic Books
  105. Nye, Joseph S., "East Asia : The Case for Deep Engagement", Foreign Affairs, 74(4), pp.90~102 (1995)
  106. Nye, Joseph S.f, "Limits of American Power", Political Science Quarterly, 117(4), pp.545~559 (2003)
  107. Nye, Joseph S., "The Future of American Power : Dominance and Decline in Perspective", Foreign Affairs, 89(6), pp.2~12 (2010)
  108. Nye, Joseph S., "Is the American Century Over?" (2015), Polity
  109. Nye, Joseph S., "The Rise and Fall of American Hegemony from Wilson to Trump", International Affairs, 95(1), pp.63~80 (2019)
  110. Parent, Joseph M., "The Wisdom of Retrenchment", Foreign Affairs, 90(6), pp.32~47 (2011)
  111. Porter, Patrick, "Why America's Grand Strategy Has Not Changed : Power, Habit, and the U. S. Foreign Policy Establishment", International Security, 42(4), pp.9~46 (2018)
  112. Porter, Patrick, "A World Imagined: Nostalgia and Liberal Order", Cato Institute Policy Analysis, (843), pp.1~21 (2018)
  113. Posen, Barry R., "Pull Back : The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy", Foreign Affairs, 92(1), pp.116~129 (2013)
  114. Porter, Patrick, "Restraint : A New Foundation for U. S. Grand Strategy" (2014), Cornell University Press
  115. Rapp-Hooper, Mira, "The Open World : What America can achieve after Trump", Foreign Affairs, 98(3), pp.18~25 (2019)
  116. Riker, William H., "The Art of Political Manipulation" (1986), Yale University Press
  117. Rodrik, Dani, "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?" (1997), Peterson Institution for International Economics
  118. Rodrik, Dani, "Globalization’s Wrong Turn : And How It Hurt America", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.26~33 (2019)
  119. Rose, Gideon, "What Obama Gets Right : Keep Calm and Carry the Liberal Order On", Foreign Affairs, 94(5), pp.2~12 (2015)
  120. Rose, Gideon, "What Happened to the American Century?", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.8~ (2019)
  121. Ruggie, John Gerard, "International Regimes, Transactions, and Change : Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order", International Organization, 36(2), pp.379~415 (1982)
  122. Silove, Nina, "Beyond the Buzzword: The Three Meanings of ‘Grand Strategy", Security Studies, 27(1), pp.27~57 (2017)
  123. "The Emergence of Progressive Foreign Policy" (2019)[URL]
  124. Spiro, Peter F., "The New Sovereigntists : American Exceptionalism and Its False Prophets", Foreign Affairs, 79(6), pp.9~15 (2000)
  125. Stiglitz, Joseph, "Globalization and Its Discontents" (2002), W. W. Norton and Company
  126. Strange, Susan, "Casino Capitalism" (1997), Manchester University Press
  127. Strange, Susan, "The Westfailure System", Review of International Studies, 25(3), pp.345~354 (1999)
  128. Tett, Gillian, "Faith-Based Finance : How Wall Street Became a Cult of Risk", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.34~40 (2019)
  129. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (1987)[URL]
  130. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (1991)[URL]
  131. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (1993)[URL]
  132. "National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement" (1994)[URL]
  133. "National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement" (1995)[URL]
  134. "National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement" (1996)[URL]
  135. "National Security Strategy of for a New Century" (1997)[URL]
  136. "National Security Strategy of for a New Century" (1998)[URL]
  137. "National Security Strategy of for a New Century" (1999)[URL]
  138. "National Security Strategy of for a Global Age" (2000)[URL]
  139. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (2002)[URL]
  140. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (2006)[URL]
  141. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (2010)[URL]
  142. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (2015)[URL]
  143. "National Security Strategy of the United States" (2017)[URL]
  144. Tyler, Patrick E., "U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop", The New York Times, ~ (1992)
  145. Walt, Stephen M., "In the National Interest : A Grand New Strategy for American Foreign Policy", Boston Review, 30(1), pp.6~12 (2005)
  146. Walt, Stephen M., "Offshore Balancing: An Idea Whose Time Has Come", Foreign Policy (2011)
  147. Walt, Stephen M., "The End of the American Era", The National Interest, (116), pp.6~16 (2011)
  148. Walt, Stephen M., "The End of Hubris : And the New Age of American Restraint", Foreign Affairs, 98(3), pp.26~35 (2019)
  149. Wertheim, Stephen, "The Price of Primacy : Why America Shouldn’t Dominate the World", Foreign Affairs, 99(2), pp.19~29 (2020)
  150. Williams, William Appleman, "The Tragedy of American Diplomacy" (1959), W. W. Norton and Company
  151. Wohlforth, William C., "The Stability of a Unipolar World", International Security, 24(1), pp.5~41 (1999)
  152. Wright, Thomas, "The Folly of Retrenchment : Why America Can’t Withdraw From the World", Foreign Affairs, 99(2), pp.10~18 (2020)
  153. Zakaria, Fareed, "The Post-American World" (2008), W. W. Norton and Company
  154. Zakaria, Fareed, "The Self-Destruction of American Power : Washington Squandered the Unipolar Moment", Foreign Affairs, 98(4), pp.10~16 (2019)
  155. Zakaria, Fareed, "The New China Scare : Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger", Foreign Affairs, 99(1), pp.52~69 (2020)

관련 논문AI추천

미국 패권은 예외적인가?: 아이켄베리의 자유주의 국제질서 이론 비판이혜정, 전혜주극동문제연구소 · 한국과 국제정치2018 · 제34권 제4호Post-American World에서 미국 예외주의의 다양성이수진, 이신화한국아메리카학회 · 미국학 논집2020 · 제52권 제3호후냉전기 중국의 부상과 미국의 전략 변화에 따른 동아시아 역내 정치경제 영향 연구신경환한국상업경영학회 · 상업경영연구2020 · 제34권 제5호트럼프 행정부와 미국외교의 잭슨주의 전환서정건, 차태서극동문제연구소 · 한국과 국제정치2017 · 제33권 제1호단극시대 미국패권전략의 이론적 기초: 다자주의 vs. 일방주의박인휘극동문제연구소 · 한국과 국제정치2003 · 제19권 제3호탈 냉전기 미국의 대 중앙아시아 정책과 함의 : 구조적 현실주의 관점에서박상남사회과학연구원 부설 동북아연구소 · 동북아연구2014 · 제29권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)

탈냉전 “30년의 위기”: 다시, 에드워드 할렛 카를 읽는 시간류석진, 차태서pp. 1-36탈냉전 이후 세계화: 심층 통합, 보호주의, 그리고 민주주의의 위기이승주pp. 81-116탈냉전기 미 동맹질서의 변화 양상과 자유국제주의 질서의 지속성김영호pp. 117-151수용과 충격: 중국의 부상과 자유주의 세계질서김재철pp. 153-183‘중국특색적 자유주의국제질서’ 하의 예외주의 정치문명의 충돌?박건영pp. 153-183
원문 보기