연안어업의 기후변화 피해비용 분석 -SSP 시나리오를 적용하여-
Analysis of Climate Change Damage to Coastal Fisheries of Korea -Using the SSP Scenarios-
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본고는 연안어업을 대상으로 계량경제학적인 방법으로 기후변화 피해비용 분석을 시도하였다. 패널 고정효과 모형으로 추정한 어획량과 기후 요인(수온·염분)의 관계는 표층 염분이 통계적으로 유의하지 않았으나 해수면 온도는 뚜렷한 2차 함수의 관계가 확인되었다. IPCC의 SSP 시나리오를 적용하여 어획량의 변화와 피해비용을 예측한 결과, 기후변화 완화 노력이 성공한다면(SSP126) 어획량이 소폭 증가하지만, 온난화가 중간 수준(SSP245)으로 진행되면 장기에 부정적인 영향이 나타나고, 온난화가 현재의 추세대로 진행된다면(SSP585) 장기에 상당한 피해가 예상된다. 특히 연안어업은 근해어업보다 경영규모가 영세하고 어장이 한정적이어서 취약성이 높은데, 연안어업의 기후변화 적응력을 높일 수 있는 정책 마련이 필요하다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the economic costs associated with climate change damage to Korean coastal fisheries by employing econometric methods. Using a panel fixed-effects model, the relationship between catch and climate factors (water temperature and salinity) was found to be a quadratic function of sea surface temperature, although surface salinity was not statistically significant. Applying the IPCC's SSP scenarios to project changes in catch and damage costs, the results show that if climate change mitigation efforts are successful (SSP1-2.6), the catch will increase slightly, but if warming is moderate (SSP2-4.5), long-term negative impacts will occur, and if warming continues on its current trajectory (SSP5-8.5), significant long-term damage is expected. In particular, coastal fisheries are more vulnerable than offshore fisheries due to their smaller scale and limited fishing grounds, so it is necessary to prepare policies to increase their adaptability to climate change.
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