기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 어업활동보호구역의 조정: 전라남도 해양공간계획을 사례로

Abstract

This study presents a direction for adjusting Fisheries Activity Protection Zones (FAPZs) in consideration of the impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of fishing activities in the Jeollanam-do coastal area. To this end, two scenarios were developed and compared: one based on current catch data and species distribution probabilities, and another incorporating future climate change scenarios. The results revealed significant spatial conflicts with Environment and Ecosystem Management Zones, Marine Tourism Zones, Energy Development Zones, and Port and Navigation Zones, with particularly high overlaps in ecologically valuable areas such as national parks and offshore wind energy sites. Based on these findings, this study proposes a differentiated zoning adjustment strategy that reflects the specific characteristics and causes of conflicts among marine uses. Furthermore, a refined management framework was suggested by subdividing the FAPZs into two categories: current management zones reflecting existing fishing activities, and potential zones based on future species richness projections. This approach aims to enhance both the management efficiency and climate adaptability of FAPZs. The results of this study are expected to serve as a foundational reference for improving fisheries zone management systems and supporting policy development in response to climate change.